A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes….
The theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now…. Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio.
Take heart. Tocqueville observed that Americans tend to go with whichever opinionated herd is ascendant, and Tocqueville's observation is still true — since most Americans never adopted Emerson's advice to think for oneself. That's usually bad, but in this case it's actually good. Once anti-Trumpism is seen as the popular (or populist) thing to believe, converts will come easily — just as they once easily signed up with Trump.