There are so many bad moons rising over the Middle East, it's hard to isolate one from the other or know which portends the worst. What one sees in their collective motion, however, is the kind of reflexive diplomatic and military scrambling that preceded, and ultimately ignited, the First World War.
Today, for instance, we're likely to welcome a new player into the martial mix: Turkey. What's happening there happened here in 2002, and with about as much thought. The nation's prime minister is asking parliament for a war-authorization vote -- to conduct "incursions" across the Iraqi border -- but heaven forfend anyone's suspicion that military action is uppermost in his mind.
"I sincerely wish that this motion will never be applied," said the p.m. to his ruling party. And of course, "Passage of this motion does not mean an immediate incursion will follow, but we will act at the right time and under the right conditions." Right, indeed. Sound familiar?
We now also have Vladimir pushing back in spookily public ways. Many find it significant that his visit to Iran yesterday was the first highest-level sit-down there by the Soviets -- sorry, the Russians -- since 1943. The implications of the symbolic were only reinforced by the president's very real words, which were portrayed by press reports as "consistent with his past positions," but "nonetheless stark in their setting."
"We should not even think of making use of force in this region," said Mr. Putin, without having to identify the "we."
He continued, "Not only should we reject the use of force, but also the mention of force as a possibility." His mood, intentions and resolution then immediately went further south and foreboding: "This is very important. We must not submit to other states in the case of aggression or some other kind of military action directed against one of the Caspian countries."
Iran's president, needless to say, agreed, asserting that "On many issues we have reached final agreement but we also need collective cooperation." Well, Mahmoud, not to worry on that point, because I think you've got it.
Vladimir is also understandably miffed at the metastasizing American presence in former Soviet territory. Since 2001, the United States has executed an anaconda strategy that would be unthinkable for any other nation in its application against the U.S.
"The Pentagon has built a military base in Kyrgyzstan to support operations in Afghanistan, and has expanded its military collaboration with Azerbaijan, including underwriting an upgrade of a former Soviet airfield there. It also has an agreement allowing military transport planes en route to Afghanistan to refuel in Turkmenistan."
To understate matters: "The American presence and collaboration in the region has alarmed Moscow, and its potential access to improved airfields in two countries bordering Iran -- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan -- has fueled speculation that the airfields could support actions against Tehran."
Geopolitical alarm, speculation, diplomatic alliances, military alliances, mobilizations, a breakdown in peaceful imagination, imperial pushbacks, "colonial" protections, an isolated separatist movement with regional implications -- such were the explosive ingredients of 1914.
Debate still rages as to who possessed that year's -- that war's -- greatest culpability. There were so many geopolitical entanglements and dominoes in play it is hard to assess and assign individual blame.
But should the Bush administration be so predictably foolish as to move beyond tensions and expand the realm of material aggression, there won't be any debate as to this go-around's culpability, now or ever. And given the destructive force of modern military hardware, should reciprocal aggressions proceed in uniform conformity with 1914-1918, there would, at any rate, be far fewer left to debate.
One is almost tempted to laugh at the seemingly inexorable, human folly of it all. What a curious species -- so determinedly led by the certifiably insane.
***
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P.M.
your paypal link brought up paypal but not a way to contribute to your site.
Posted by: Judith Feldman | October 18, 2007 at 05:29 PM
This is exactly the reason
why so many learned and experienced people warned
our self anointed IMP, that invading Iraq would
"open the gates of hell". Then, this impish knucklehead proceeded to fire these learned people and surround himself with anus lickers and kneepad fillers. None of which even knows why the thirteen original colonies broke from good old England. To expect or have even hoped they might know of the disaster that became of Englands imperial endeavors in that same exact region is now just a fleeting thought. What makes things even scarier, is that this impostor "President" we have was a history major in college. Now billions of people will be made to suffer dearly for his ignorance and greed. Our salvation now depends upon the Democrats. BUT HOW? Pelosi has taken impeachment off the table, and I think I saw Reid sqirm when he heard the wind rustle a few leaves in a tree. 95% of the population of the entire world wants this administration gone and these two will not lift a finger. I'm fairly positive each one of them has received thousands upon thousands upon thousands of phone calls, emails and letters asking and demanding they impeach. Both have mentioned it somewhat on the Sunday propaganda shows. Their response is " You (85% of the American people) just don't understand". It's bad enough we were lied to, and our trust betrayed by a moron, now we are being called stupid by two cowards. Where are the shovels and pitchforks.
Posted by: Masi | October 22, 2007 at 03:34 AM