It would seem that Republican angst is effectively over. By next week they will have virtually crowned John McCain as America's Great Hope. They'll then have nine full months to frame the contest, versus the shorter general-election schedule of the Democrats, who will carry their internal bickering into March, or perhaps even April.
For the latter, this is not looking good.
It may be the hand-holding Dems whose catechism is "Solidarity," but it's the Republicans who know how to unify after the going gets bloody. That fundamental emotional difference between the parties' bases will become elegantly clear by Tuesday, as, it is my educated guess, increasing numbers of self-identified conservative Republicans begin to flock to their new standardbearer, whatever his faults and past sins.
That attitudinal-adjustment process already seems well underway. Romney may have licked McCain by a 2-to-1 ratio yesterday among the hardcore-conservative crowd, but Florida was rightly perceived by them as their last chance to dominate. It was almost do or die for Romney conservatives. And they shot craps, because "among moderates," reports the Washington Post, "McCain beat Romney by the same ratio" and "among those who said they are 'somewhat conservative,' the two ran roughly even."
Little by little McCain has eaten into Romney's core, whose fling with the governor now finally appears more dangerous than satisfying. McCain started at the edges and has been boring in since. By Tuesday we'll witness wholesale unrequited love betwixt the gov and his base. It's time to go home, for the family's sake.
As an early indicator of just how ideologically nimble Republicans can be in a pinch, there was this intriguing finding from the exit polls yesterday: "McCain not only did significantly better than Mr. Romney among voters who listed the war as their top concern, but also did better than him with voters who said they were most concerned about the economy."
Breaking that down a bit further: "More than 4 in 10 Florida Republicans said the economy is the most important problem facing the country, and McCain carried their votes. Romney won among Republicans with the most positive impression of the economy" -- that would be all three of them -- while "McCain dominated among those who see an economy in trouble."
That was all the evidence needed to conclude a seismic, Olympic-class shift in, shall we say, Republicans' flexible thinking. On the precipice of the 21st-century's first Great Depression, they opted for a man who has confessed he wouldn't know fiscal from monetary. They know, however, he can win, and that's all the game is about. They'll put McCain on the rack and extort pledges of tax rebates to plutocrats and new marginal rates on busboys, and all will be forgiven.
Add to next week's mix Giuliani's supporters moving to McCain, plus Huckabee's time-extended drain on Romney's conservatives, and we're looking at a potential blowout. Then take all that in the general and further add millions of swooning independents, and the broader electoral map starts looking even better for McCain.
His warhawkishness could hurt him somewhat among independents, but on the other hand, let the Dems nominate Hillary and then watch those indies flock to McCain. The latter's camp will sell him in the general like they'll sell him in next week's primaries. Said a McCain strategist on the upcoming battles: "McCain will have to pivot to talk about authenticity.... We'll say McCain is ready to be commander in chief and Romney is a guy who is a slick salesman."
By March or April, just replay the talking-points tape. If you think the GOP painted John Kerry as an opportunistic flip-flopper, just wait till it takes its meat cleaver to Hillary. She was for the war before she was against it, the party machinery will sputter, not to mention being for healthcare reform and then against it and now for it again -- and this time, there will be searing truth to the charge.
The GOP party line in the making is that the only candidate offering "change" will be the candidate offering "authenticity," as already previewed. Bill Clinton's slam of Obama as a "roll of the dice" will boomerang, as McCain and his troops argue that you never know what may come with a flipper and flopper, especially one who flips and flops on issues as critical as war.
None of this takes tea leaves.
Hence from a purely strategic, non-ideological point of view, the transcending and independent-laden Obama is the Dems' logical choice. That in itself almost guarantees that they'll pass.
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