McCain May Need Bush More Than He Thinks

"We love ya big guy, but for heaven's sake don't call us. We'll call you."

That's the official word from McCain's High Command to the occupying regime of George W. Bush, as reported this morning by the New York Times after a weekend what-to-do-about-George strategy session in Arizona.

"Senator John McCain's campaign advisers will ask the White House to deploy President Bush for major Republican fund-raising, but they do not want the president to appear too often at his side," reveals the Times, as revealed to it by the behind-the-eight-ball boys.

Things like that must be put ... uh, delicately. In effect, they need George's money -- oh, how they need his money -- but let's face it: he's drenched in voter-repellent. This may be America but 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is seen by the vast multitudes as enemy territory. Thanks a lot, George, for greasing the skids of your would-be Republican successor with molasses.

Nevertheless there's that matter of dangled money, which in politics, as in life, has a certain magnetic charm -- a certain pull in the way of patching up bruised relationships. You know, like ones in which you were falsely excoriated before a third of your base for having fathered an illegitimate child, costing you your dream of a lifetime and leaving you wandering in the wilderness for years.

But the thought of those plain brown envelopes stuffed with right-wing cash has McCain's advisers feeling that Christian warmth of forgiveness. "We were dyspeptic jerks who held grudges," said one, perhaps merely in happy anticipation of getting back on a payroll that actually pays. Every month.

Yet there's a second "nevertheless." And this one, practically speaking, may be a whole lot tougher to overcome than the emotional stuff.

As the Times understated the political undertow, the McCain camp is staring down the barrel of a "difficult calculus" -- that of "using Mr. Bush enough to try to make the tough sell of Mr. McCain to conservatives but not so much that he will drive away the independents and some moderate Democrats that Mr. McCain is counting on in November."

The problem, of course, is that using Mr. Bush at all -- which they've already conceded they must do -- will approach the equivalent of Alf Landon having had Herbert Hoover dragging behind him on the 1936 campaign trail; of taking a dire calculus and making it immeasurably dismal.

Every time John and George are caught together on camera, the improbable pair will remind voters -- moderates, independents and even that handful of thoughtful conservatives -- that the latter just spent eight years, as Jonathan Rauch of the National Journal has painted the GOP's smiley face, sponsoring little more than "ruthless partisanship ... fiscal recklessness ... polarization ... presidential monarchism ... [and the] erosion of U.S. credibility on human rights." All are welcome to add to this list of U.S. fortunes-reversal, and they will.

The solution, says Rauch, is McCain. "If the Bush years were snakebit, think of McCain as an antivenin.... Wise Republicans know, to begin with, that the party is lost if it cannot rebuild its own center and appeal to the country's."

In short, McCain and some message of moderation can overcome the electorally narrowing megalomania of Karl Rove. The center shall set him -- and his party -- free.

But there's problem with that, too. A really big one. And it's already been foreshadowed by none other than one of McCain's own media advisers, Mark McKinnon, who "told National Public Radio last week that although he supported Mr. McCain, he would not be part of the senator’s campaign if Senator Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee because he ... would be uncomfortable in a campaign that would inevitably be attacking him."

McKinnon has seen the handwriting on the wall. It is, of course, axiomatic that every presidential campaign gets nasty, but this one is about to become the platinum standard for nastiness -- precisely because McCain's center will fold, and precisely because it is the independent-magnet of Obama that he'll be running against. McKinnon knows that, he can smell it. And he wants nothing to do with it.

He knows that as McCain's camp watches critical swing states turn from purple to blue, McCain may have no choice but to revert to the Rovian strategy of turning out the base. What to do about those moderates and independents flocking to Obama's camp? Subject them -- which is to say Obama -- to withering fire, not so much to energize the Republican base but to suppress the critical one of Obama's.

And when that mothering invention of necessity comes, you may indeed see Herbert Hoover dragging behind Alf Landon.

Comments

[Clemsy]

McCain should wait until the last minute, while developing some kind of strategy against Obama.

After all, if Billary gets the nod, then all John has to do is sit back and watch the fireworks as the right, and a lot of moderates and indies, flock around his flag.

If Obama gets the nod, he'll need a lot more than just George's fund raising. He'll need more wisdom than the Republicans are capable of. Odds are, he'll take a metaphorical self inflicted gunshot wound to the head.

People soft shoe around this one: John McCain has PTSD disguised as a 'bad temper.' If Obama wins the nomination, he'll be as unstoppable (for good or ill) as a rising tide. John's head may very well explode in exasperation.

[Richard]

For the Democrats, it is not McCain that they are running against, its Bush-McCain. They need to associate McCain with Bush every time they mention McCain. Saw the begining of this on 60 minutes this weekend, one if the senators interviewed saying "Bush-McCain" repeatedly.

[John Kochis]

I totally agree Richard. We need to emphasize the Bush /McCain linkage as much as possible. Keep it in the forefront of people's minds. I think though on the other side of the equation if it's Hilary a linkage to Bill (Billary) has been established as well and to some folks this is equally repellent (though I would not count myself among them).

[neoconned]

re: Mark McKinnon - I am very surprised that McCain has not said that Mark needs to spend more time with his family. Expressing a lack of desire to go up against any and all of the pending opponents is usually a self-inflicted kiss of death for a political advisor!

Note to our Republican friends: this lack of advisor termination on McCain's part is not a sign of a decisive leader, but one of a deluded wannabee. Besides, shouldn't McCain know where his advisors stand BEFORE he hires them? What does this say about his judgement and his managerial abilities? Are you willing to surrender control of your nation to yet another out-of-touch egotist?

[Will B]

As for who wins in the Obama vs. McCain race, anyone who underestimates their advesary hasn't fought enough...so it will not be a cake walk for Barack.

That said, in 2008 I think the economy will trump terrorism, unless, well you know. The promise of 100+ years of war will be a lead weight around McCain's political neck. Funny, I was reading my little neighborhood paper this weekend and their was an editorial by a politically well-connected writer. He was recalling a conversation he had years ago with a former US Senator, Slade Gordon (R, WA) who told the writer that "McCain is Insane". Got me thinking because Slade was a standard-bearing conservative of the 'olde guard' - that's kind of scary, really.

A good predictor of late 2008 vs. early 2008 is how many people came out to see them speak. In Seattle 10 days ago, 500 attended a McCain appearance and 25,000 appeared for an Obama appearance - 1.5 orders of magnitude means something.

[Mooser]

because it is the independent-magnet of Obama that he'll be running against

God, I hope so, if he has the votes. And with Hilary's whole hearted support, too. Or we can give up on the Democrats.

[Clemsy]

Oh, giving up on the Democrats is easy. I'm going back to independent as soon as may be.

As soon as may be.

[I remember]

When Mckinnon worked for the Bush campaign in 2000, someone from his office mailed Al Gore's office a videotape of Bush practicing for the debate.

[Hotrod]

PM,
The Democrats are too stupid to use the Bush/McCain association to their advantage. Kerry/Edwards should have run against Cheney-the most despised man in America, but not one word from them. Are they afraid to take on this piece of excrement? Our local Congressmen is being challenged again by a Dick Cheney wannabe, and will he hang Cheney around his neck like a rotting, stinking chicken? No! Not a chance in Hell. What is wrong with these worthless, spineless, clueless Democrats? I had thought Howard was a fighter, but no more.

[Mickeyg]

PM:
I think the Dems could win the popular vote with Happy the Clown as the nominee as long as they keep showing that picture of the love-hug of the McBush twins over & over & over until the election. It is priceless!!! The only way we'll lose is by fraud in the electronic voting machines.

[JB]

Any predicitons regarding the outcome of the presidential election should be followed by: "if we get a fair election."
We've just been through eight years of hell brought about by rigged elections.

[Big Time Patriot]

Why on earth would any "moderates and indies" pick McCain over Clinton (if Hillary happens to win?).

Continuing the war in Iraq and perhaps starting a war in Iran is not exactly "moderate" and so stupid that anyone who has the brains to think of themselves as "independent" must reject it. McCain is four more years of Bush, no one beyond the cool aid drinkers is going to be voting Republican this next election, no matter if its McCain or any other Republican. I myself believe the Hillary haters are the same 30% who still support Bush. They aren't going to be winning any elections this time around.