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« The WSJ takes on the WSJ | Main | With Christie, one can't be too cynical »

October 31, 2012

Comments

The word "momentum" is going to be part of a lot of jokes for a long time.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

I'm hoping and expecting that this will hold.

I'm wondering how the knuckledraggers will respond. They've been told Obama's going to lose for sure. Many of them own guns. Their mouthpieces have been clearing the way for an "Obama cheated" reaction for weeks, if not months with their unskewed polls BS and ZOMG voter fraud nonsense.

Particularly if Obama wins the EC but not the popular vote. They'll forget 2000 ever happened and declare Obama illegitimate before the votes are done being counted. And probably try to challenge the result in any state that's within a 500k margin.

This could be the enduring legacy of Debate #1. Obama looks poised to still win, but the margin will be narrow enough to give rise to all kinds of trouble. Didn't look that way a month ago.

Can everyone just once and for all stop channeling Andrew Sullivan's ridiculous debate #1 hysteria and move on? Whether it was intentional or not, the result has been a much more highly motivated and intense GOTV effort for a race that had started to tighten substantially starting around Sept 26 -- well before the first debate. Go look at that RAND survey chart if you don't believe me. Unless Obama's horrible horrible meltdown was so intense it retroactively radiated backward in time. There was a very real danger of complacency around that time, but that's no longer a problem.

Also, at the time of the first debate, the right-wing super PACs were on the cusp of diverting their considerable money away from Romney and down to congressional races. Now they've wasted it on Romney and it's too late to change that. In retrospect, the first debate "debacle" is already starting to look incredibly smart.

Meep meep motherf*ckers.

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