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« From a nobody geek to a top brass's ass | Main | Ah, Newt, Herman, Mitt and Michele, they're all here »

June 28, 2013

Comments

Tom

So your 'unintoxicated' advice to Democratic legislators is to maneuver for *defeat* of immigration reform because, although the Dem Party officially, and center-left or moderate politicians in general have advocated for such reform for many successive congresses, and although the idea of such reform is immensely popular, and although such reform would undoubtedly help many thousands of individuals and families earnestly trying their best to enter or remain in the country legally, the really IMPORTANT thing is we just can't have the GOP looking less bad going into 2014. Because those fickle brownish voting demographics might not continue to notice Republicans don't like them very much.

Thank God for your unclouded vision, Phil.

Peter G

Peace. Liberated from the constraints of the Voting Rights act, the Republicans can be relied upon to provide all the motivation necessary to drive minority voters to the polls. The perception that this attempt to achieve immigration reform on the other hand, must seem sincere, is essential. It not only must seem sincere, it must be sincere. Should those minority voters get the idea that this is just for show and is not sincere then I wish the Democrats luck in urging them to the polls.

Long term, you are absolutely correct, it will be a lifeline to such Republicans as choose to grab it. Which I think is a good thing as it will drive the loonier fringes to third party formation and get them the hell out of the closed Republican primary process. A sane, (well saner) Republican party is not a bad goal in its own right.

Robert Lipscomb

Immigration (Un)reform. Marriage equality left to the states. Voting rights (suppression) left to the states. Women's rights left to the states. A GOP political genius once referred to these kinds of issues as wedge issues and used them to motivate the base in off-year elections.

The right has gun control to motivate its base.

What happens if the Democrats win the Culture War and obtain majority status on identity status vis-a-vis diversity?

My guess is that it becomes a party less left wing on economic, foreign policy and military issues. We will become more truly conservative by supporting the established institutions of Social Security, Medicare and so on. We will likely be moderate on foreign policy but substantially right of our left wing which means we will likely support a military on a 5% GDP basis.

What does that leave the GOP?

AnneJ

They may be sincere in their efforts but that doesn't mean it's going to work. Remember the background check failure? Sure, that was the senate, but even if it did get through the senate, did it even have a ghost of a chance in the Animal House? The farm bill failure too, as that was squarely the republicans' failure no matter how many lame attempts they tried at blaming it on the democrats. If or when immigration reform fails in the house, the next step I think would be to make sure that the republicans are solely to blame for it in the eyes of the electorate.

Chris Andersen

If a Democrat is serious about immigration reform and doesn't see it as just a means to future political success then of course they would put on the full court press to get meaningful reform passed now.

And there is a problem with this?

If the GOP sabotages the effort then make that part of the 2014 campaign. But what's more important: gaining political advantage or passing meaningful reform?

Turgidson

This issue is the extraordinarily rare can't-lose scenario for the Democrats.

Passing the bill is the right thing to do, Latinos will be grateful and they aren't stupid - they can read a roll call and see that it was a unified Democratic party that got this done for them. Putting aside the sad fact that the bill apparently makes the border the most heavily-militarized zone on earth, it's a pretty good bill. Sure, it will keep the GOP from totally bottoming out with the Latino voting public, but I don't think they'll see an immediate boost just because a small cadre of their party voted for the bill while the rest voted against (and many will probably take to the House floor with fever dreams of wetbacks taking over).

If the bill fails, even the GOP can't spin their way out of taking the blame. It's too well-established now which party is for reform, which party is not, and which party tends to include the nativists and xenophobes (and, bonus for our side, the nativists and xenophobes can't keep their pieholes shut). And the bill's failure may tip the scales some in 2014 such that the GOP majority is thinned or kicked out. And 2016, with Hillary on the ticket - the same Hillary who wiped the floor with Obama with the Latino vote in 2008 - could be just an epic asskicking felt from Mars. Romney's pathetic showing among Latinos could be their new ceiling, should they kill this bill.

Passing the bill and setting our immigrant population on a path towards full inclusion in the American family is the right thing to do, and it will be tragic if that doesn't happen. So I think it's too cynical by half to be rooting for the GOP to kill it. But it's undeniable that the Democrats stand to gain in the voting booth if that happens, which is a fine silver lining.

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