Cameron's--not Assad's--peculiar logic

In Britain's parliamentary debate (live on C-Span2) on the Syria crisis, an opposition MP asked P.M. David Cameron about the puzzling logic behind Assad's ordering of a large-scale chemical attack. Would the P.M. please explain?

Cameron was plenty ready to do so, although his prepared response was, at best, an odd one.

Assad, said Cameron, had committed 14 separate acts of small-scale chemical-weapon assaults, to which the civilized world reacted indifferently. This is true. 

"As long as they keep [the] body count at a certain level, we won't do anything," an American intelligence official told Foreign Policy earlier this week.

"This week" was last week, and the intelligence official's admission appeared in print two days before the massive assault. Our "red line" was never straight and it certainly wasn't bold; it contained permissible breaches.

But, Cameron continued, Assad, having committed his series of small-scale assaults with impunity, concluded that the West's indifference would endure in the face of a large-scale assault--even though (and this part Cameron omitted) American intelligence officials were publicly broadcasting their indifference only to low body counts. In other words, Assad had every incentive to persist in the severely contained tactics of chemical attacks, and every logical reason to avoid deploying a major one.  

That Assad is supremely logical is as incontrovertible as the fact of his bloodthirsty despotism. He knows a Syrian stalemate is in the West's best interests, he knows we never wanted to intervene, and he always knew a large-scale chemical-weapons assault would be a stupid, supremely illogical invitation on his part.

The attack points to--it suggests--somebody Syrian having gone rogue. Cameron's argument in parliament just doesn't add up.

Comments

[Robert Lipscomb]

How wise you sound sitting atop the poisoned bodies of women and children.

Let me consider your peculiar logic.

Assad has the largest stockpile of chemical weapons in the world. Check.

Assad's control structure over the largest stockpile is so poor lower level officials are able to go rogue, also known as out of control. Check.

He is willing to use them up to the point of the US not taking punitive action which affirms the principle that Assad amenable to punitive corrective action. Check.

Take no punitive/corrective action.

Peculiar. Check.

Logic. Not so much.

[Peter G]

Two ways of looking at that. Assad "knows" it would be stupid to use never agents. He knows we know that. So how many mistakes or other excuses is he allowed?

Didn't mean for that to happen to your village town or suburb. It would be a shame if it were to happen again. Nudge nudge wink wink.