Silver taketh and giveth and then taketh away again only to partially give back in his latest appraisal of the Senate seesaw. According to his prevailing forecast, Republicans harbor high probabilities of taking the current Democratic seats of Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, which gives them their needed six for majority control.
But--and who would have predicted this six months ago?--Republican Pat Roberts' Kansas seat is a tossup. So they need some insurance. And over the weekend, they got it. Writes Silver:
The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll always makes news and with good reason: The pollster that conducts it, Selzer & Company, is among the best in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings. On Saturday evening, the poll had an especially interesting result in Iowa’s Senate race. It put the Republican candidate Joni Ernst six points ahead of the Democrat, Representative Bruce Braley.
If Selzer's poll reflects an Iowan reality to come, then there's the GOP's backup. In addition, "Polls have also moved toward Republicans in Colorado," observes Silver.
Nonetheless he adds that it's "not quite" time for Democrats to "panic," since there's "too much ... uncertainty in the outlook." We're speaking, after all, about fallible polls, and Election Day is still weeks ahead.
On the other hand you may wish to avoid the last-minute rush to alarm, and panic now.