Walker, Bush, and the invisible prime mover

For Scott Walker, Quinnipiac has some good news and some bad news:

"Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is taking the Republican political world by storm," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter A. Brown. "He's gone from being unknown outside Wisconsin to the hot candidate, poised to become the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. Front-runner status would make it easier for Gov. Walker to raise money and recruit top talent for his staff, but it also puts a target on his back."

A big one. As the pollster also noted, "It's worth remembering that former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Gov. Mike Huckabee won the last two caucuses and neither came close to the nomination." Indeed, for Republicans, Iowa may be a targeted curse. Its intensely conservative, caucus-going turnout — 45 percent self-identify as "very conservative" — reflects an ideological ardency that weakens in primary states. Like Santorum and Huckabee before him, Walker's race to the feverish bottom to reach the temporary top could be the single-most idiotic move he ever makes.

Or maybe not. Who knows? What I believe, though, is that both right and left are misreading the Walker phenomenon. The right sees him as brilliantly portraying its own mindless brand of politics, so he's the man. The left's analysis is essentially the same, except that "cynically" replaces "brilliantly." But from this point on, every time Walker either cynically or brilliantly says something worthy of Michele Bachmann, the GOP elite — i.e., the money — will see nothing but a general-election loser. And that's when the target on Walker's back will become as big as the side of a barn.

While money doesn't always prevail, it remains the safest bet one can place. And though Walker's money-raising efforts may now be eased, Jeb Bush will still have most of the cash. Because with Romney out, Bush is money's only hope.

 

Comments

[Peter G]

Overall I agree with your take on Walker's chances but it would be wise not to underestimate him. Wisconsin is, historically, a blue state yet Walker managed to turn it politically red by hitting exactly the right cleavage lines. One could attribute this to chance but I doubt it. As with any state that fails to vote along what are thought to be progressive lines the lefty blogs like to excoriate the dimwitted voters in Wisconsin who failed to vote in their own interests. The problem is they did. Walker very cynically told the voters that almost everything the left was trying to sell in the last election and the recall election was a phoney version of trickle down economics that most would pay for but few would benefit from. And he was right.

[Turgidson]

I still think the microscope of a frontrunning campaign will ultimately trip Walker up - and if that doesn't, the debates might, as he doesn't seem to be particularly quick on his feet when he doesn't have prepared remarks.

But I don't think he'll have a Bachmann-esque hilarious flameout. He's too disciplined for that, and while he seems like a true believer in right wing trickle down fairy tales and culture war nostalgia just like Michele, he knows not to spout off about the HPV vaccine causing mental retardation and other such daffiness.

Like I said in an earlier post, the Kochs loom as the wild card. They love them some Scott Walker and may very well decide they prefer him as the nominee over another Bush. If so, Walker will have all the money he needs. I'm just not sure the Kochs will so overtly choose sides. I think they'll focus on tightening the GOP's stranglehold on state and local governments and buy some more congressional seats as the opportunities arise, and help the GOP nominee as needed later on.