Never have I so fervently hoped that I'm wrong, and rarely do I defy hard evidence before me. But here I sit, dismayed in my enduring belief that Jeb Bush will be his party's nominee — notwithstanding the mounting evidence of his handicaps — while praying that my political judgment on this matter is as sound as Lawrence Kudlow's macroeconomics.
The latest NBC/WSJ poll offers some hope that I am, indeed, prodigiously wrong. Among "potential Republican primary voters," Scott Walker's net positive is now nothing short of remarkable. Fifty-three percent of them "say they could see themselves supporting Walker"; a mere 17 percent cannot. Thus the marvel of mathematics yields, for now, a 36 percent net positive for this presidential candidate of almost W.-like brainpower. Bush's net positive? A miserable, and perhaps even precarious, 7.
Moreover, there's this statistical gem of rapturous folly: "a plurality of Republican primary voters — 46 percent — say that a candidate coming closest to their views on the issues is more important than being the best chance to defeat the Democratic nominee (19 percent)." One expects that creeping reality will soften GOP primary voters' fundamentalism. But for now the radical throngs wish to go with their diseased hearts, and this of course gives Walker an edge — maybe an edge more durable than I imagine.
So I do harbor hope that my judgment is spectacularly wrong, though that hope is as shaky, it seems to me, as Bush's net popularity. The Floridian is expected to break all fundraising records, and with this abundance he can defame and diminish his competitors with Romneyesque abandon. There's also that no minor matter of looming legal troubles for the unrecalled Wisconsin governor, who could become the next Chris Christie; and then there's the near inevitability that Walker will, with unerring precision and uncanny repetition, reveal himself as little more than a Herman Cain with portfolio. (Not even Herman said something so stupid as comparing peaceful state protestors to ISIS marauders.) What's more, Marco Rubio's net positive (30) rivals Walker's, which suggests that Republican primary voters are merely thrashing about. It's that early.
Don't mistake: I'm rooting for Scott Walker — he'd be a far more entertaining loser than Jeb Bush. Yet every time I get my hopes up, my thoughts promptly return to those of the above paragraph.
For myself, I will mourn the sequential passing of all the Republican candidates. Each of them has earned their position in the clown car and each brings entertainment possibilities that will be missed once the greasepaint is put away for good. I do detect a glimmer of hope in the troubles for Jeb and Scott you have outlined, in that they are making a Draft Mitt movement increasingly likely.
Posted by: Peter G | March 10, 2015 at 11:34 AM