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June 30, 2015


Peter G

I think this is a common mistake. Using people as proxies for popularity or the mood of the electorate is a shaky proposition at best. Many of the same people who disdain Obama like the basic elements of Obamacare. You are absolutely right to say party identification hasn't changed much. But the coalition of those who are sympathetic to the Republican party is falling apart on the rocks of flags and gays and damn near everything else. It really is a matter of commitment to vote. Finding candidates that can speak to and energize the disparate factions of the Republican party will be nearly impossible for a presidential candidate and not much easier for congressional or senate candidates. I'll say it again, the Republican big tent is on fire.


Like Sullivan...getting all scaredy cat. Let's wait and see what is left after the Republican primaries before we get upset.


What Peter said. Also, assuming Bush is the only real candidate they have, things aren't looking so good for the Republicans:

Peter G

I understand PM's point of view. So many times the Republicans have looked like falling apart. Time and again they have demonstrated complete incompetence in governance, in foreign affairs, in basic military strategy. Even in bookkeeping. And damn if they haven't been rewarded for it. Now my point of view is not unlike Charlie Brown's belief that he really is going to kick the football this time. I think the Republicans have themselves cornered this time. I hope I am not wrong. I don't think there's a snowflake's chance in hell of the Republicans securing the White House and that should be obvious to everyone. But now am beginning to think there could be a major change in both the House and the Senate in the Democrats favor.


The Senate certainly, since the number of seats the GOP has to defend this cycle is much greater than those the Dems have to defend. But as long as they can keep the State Houses, and by gerrymandering, the Congress, they'll achieve their aim of clogging up the pipes. I think they've given up on the presidency, the clown show notwithstanding.

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