In President Obama's U.N. address, he denounced the prevailing idea that Bashar al-Assad's brutish Syrian dictatorship is acceptable since any realistic alternative would be worse. I wonder, though, how genuinely distressed Obama is by President Putin's military intervention on Assad's behalf.
Spherically speaking, Syria is, after all, in Russia's backyard. To the United States, Syria is essentially a blood moon. Hence Obama has kept a commensurate distance. Let Putin pour Russian resources into Syria. He'll either wound ISIS — a plus for the U.S. — or consume himself in another Afghan folly.
I can't see Obama instructing John Kerry to strenuously protest Putin's intervention in Syria. Obama recognizes, I'd wager, that Putin is, for now, merely playing into Obama's hand.
My crystal ball is a little hazy on this one. It all rather depends on what Assad uses his military aid to achieve. Even Putin will have little say on this. ISIS is one thing but I suspect Assad will not spare the other opposition he faces and that will include some nominal allies and quite a mass of civilians. Stand by for more refugees.
Posted by: Peter G | September 28, 2015 at 10:13 AM
You might see some ramped up airstrikes (in fact they are already happening), and you'll might see some ground attacks against ISIS/DAESH in the east and southeast of the country, if Assad can persuade Putin to carry them out. But I'm guessing that most of Assad's effort will be made to secure the western part of Syria and the port of Latakia. This is where his Alawite supporters are concentrated.
Posted by: shsavage | September 28, 2015 at 11:39 AM
You'd think Assad would have been intelligent enough to copy Saddam Hussein in his economic policies. They kept him in power a long time. That would be favoring his own base, the Alewites, but it seems from what I have been reading lately he never did that. No wealth was spread downward and the Alewites are as dirt poor, barring some of the nobility, as anyone else in Syria. They seem to be getting a little resentful of being used as cannon fodder in Assad's multiple battles. If he does not relieve pressure on the Alewites they seem as likely to hang him from a lamp post as anyone.
Posted by: Peter G | September 28, 2015 at 11:50 AM
The Assad family has been in power for longer than Saddam (since 1971 nominally to the present day, vs. 1979 to 2003), though I take your point. As horrid as it is to contemplate, Bashar just isn't as ruthless as his Daddy.
Posted by: shsavage | September 28, 2015 at 06:25 PM
The right seems livid that we're missing a chance for another Vietnam.
Posted by: Bob Puharic | September 29, 2015 at 12:26 PM