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September 28, 2015


Peter G

My crystal ball is a little hazy on this one. It all rather depends on what Assad uses his military aid to achieve. Even Putin will have little say on this. ISIS is one thing but I suspect Assad will not spare the other opposition he faces and that will include some nominal allies and quite a mass of civilians. Stand by for more refugees.


You might see some ramped up airstrikes (in fact they are already happening), and you'll might see some ground attacks against ISIS/DAESH in the east and southeast of the country, if Assad can persuade Putin to carry them out. But I'm guessing that most of Assad's effort will be made to secure the western part of Syria and the port of Latakia. This is where his Alawite supporters are concentrated.

Peter G

You'd think Assad would have been intelligent enough to copy Saddam Hussein in his economic policies. They kept him in power a long time. That would be favoring his own base, the Alewites, but it seems from what I have been reading lately he never did that. No wealth was spread downward and the Alewites are as dirt poor, barring some of the nobility, as anyone else in Syria. They seem to be getting a little resentful of being used as cannon fodder in Assad's multiple battles. If he does not relieve pressure on the Alewites they seem as likely to hang him from a lamp post as anyone.


The Assad family has been in power for longer than Saddam (since 1971 nominally to the present day, vs. 1979 to 2003), though I take your point. As horrid as it is to contemplate, Bashar just isn't as ruthless as his Daddy.

Bob Puharic

The right seems livid that we're missing a chance for another Vietnam.

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