For Jeb Bush, this is it

Norman Ornstein:

Here is the most important and enduring fact of the GOP race so far. In every recent national poll of Republicans, including those with likely voters, with or without leaners, the breakdown is that the five main outsider candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee) combine to generate between 63 and 70 percent support. The three main establishment candidates, Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, combine to between 12 and 19 percent.

If an establishment nominee it nonetheless be, Ornstein favors Rubio. Bush, he notes, is "floundering," and his "evident disgust for a party process that now strongly favors the outsider insurgents," combined with "his poor performance in debates and on the trail, [might] lead him to follow Scott Walker and drop out."

I can't argue with that. I do question the timing of Ornstein's piece, which was posted today at 11:22 am Eastern. By 10:30 pm Eastern, we'll know if Bush can stay alive.

However awkwardly he does it, I expect Jeb to huff and puff and add that exclamation point tonight. This debate should be a barnburner, in that for Bush and his massive boodle, it is live or die. If he needed motivation, he sure has it now.

Of course it may be that Bush is simply incapable of even impersonating an aggressive, passionate politician. In that case, my expectation will be flattened. At the moment, though, I'm not as sour on Bush's chances as Ornstein seems to be. In five hours, either the bell will toll for Jeb — and the Bush dynasty — or rockets will glare. Surely he can put in at least one competent performance, right?

Right?

 

Comments

[Bob]

I'm not expecting much from Jeb. What will be fun is if, to level the field with evangelicals, Trump points out a doctrine of Carson's church is that all Christians who aren't observant on Saturday are in cahoots with Satan. We'll see if he really doesn't know about Seventh-day Adventists the way he's been claiming or if it was a setup.

[CH]

I think it's a challenge for any candidate to truly breakout in any of these debates with 10 participants, particularly when you factor in the candidates' opening and closing statements, and the 2-hour overall time limit. A few well-timed shots, retorts, and other red meat statements for the GOP audience, sure, but nothing like a sustained performance that can resurrect a truly flailing nominee [i.e. the Jeb:( and Paul campaigns].

My hunch is that the mechanics of current state of the GOP primary race, with its strong anti-establishment dominance, is safely locked-in until the overall field of potentially viable candidates begins to narrow (I use the term 'viable' very loosely for the GOP).

At least with Trump and Carson there is a contrast. A contrast in crazy, of course, but still a contrast for the anti-establishment wing of the party to see. With Rubio, Kasich, Jeb:( and even Fiorina, I just don't see enough of a contrast for any one of them to breakout in a debate and start consolidating support from chamber-of-commerce type republican voters. And as such, the support of establishment wing remains divided (at least among voters), and Trump and Carson will continue to dominate the overall process.

This also means there is little incentive for any of the establishment nominees to drop-out, as they are all waiting for someone else to drop-out first and to let sanity prevail (again, I use the word 'sanity' loosely for the GOP). They are all going to keep running on fumes, while the RNC increasingly freaks out.

[Peter G]

So shall I put in 10:31 PM as the Bush campaign TOD? I'm doing paperwork so I might as well add that to the list right? Get it all done at once.