Here is the most important and enduring fact of the GOP race so far. In every recent national poll of Republicans, including those with likely voters, with or without leaners, the breakdown is that the five main outsider candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee) combine to generate between 63 and 70 percent support. The three main establishment candidates, Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, combine to between 12 and 19 percent.
If an establishment nominee it nonetheless be, Ornstein favors Rubio. Bush, he notes, is "floundering," and his "evident disgust for a party process that now strongly favors the outsider insurgents," combined with "his poor performance in debates and on the trail, [might] lead him to follow Scott Walker and drop out."
I can't argue with that. I do question the timing of Ornstein's piece, which was posted today at 11:22 am Eastern. By 10:30 pm Eastern, we'll know if Bush can stay alive.
However awkwardly he does it, I expect Jeb to huff and puff and add that exclamation point tonight. This debate should be a barnburner, in that for Bush and his massive boodle, it is live or die. If he needed motivation, he sure has it now.
Of course it may be that Bush is simply incapable of even impersonating an aggressive, passionate politician. In that case, my expectation will be flattened. At the moment, though, I'm not as sour on Bush's chances as Ornstein seems to be. In five hours, either the bell will toll for Jeb — and the Bush dynasty — or rockets will glare. Surely he can put in at least one competent performance, right?
Right?