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October 28, 2015

Comments

I'm not expecting much from Jeb. What will be fun is if, to level the field with evangelicals, Trump points out a doctrine of Carson's church is that all Christians who aren't observant on Saturday are in cahoots with Satan. We'll see if he really doesn't know about Seventh-day Adventists the way he's been claiming or if it was a setup.

I think it's a challenge for any candidate to truly breakout in any of these debates with 10 participants, particularly when you factor in the candidates' opening and closing statements, and the 2-hour overall time limit. A few well-timed shots, retorts, and other red meat statements for the GOP audience, sure, but nothing like a sustained performance that can resurrect a truly flailing nominee [i.e. the Jeb:( and Paul campaigns].

My hunch is that the mechanics of current state of the GOP primary race, with its strong anti-establishment dominance, is safely locked-in until the overall field of potentially viable candidates begins to narrow (I use the term 'viable' very loosely for the GOP).

At least with Trump and Carson there is a contrast. A contrast in crazy, of course, but still a contrast for the anti-establishment wing of the party to see. With Rubio, Kasich, Jeb:( and even Fiorina, I just don't see enough of a contrast for any one of them to breakout in a debate and start consolidating support from chamber-of-commerce type republican voters. And as such, the support of establishment wing remains divided (at least among voters), and Trump and Carson will continue to dominate the overall process.

This also means there is little incentive for any of the establishment nominees to drop-out, as they are all waiting for someone else to drop-out first and to let sanity prevail (again, I use the word 'sanity' loosely for the GOP). They are all going to keep running on fumes, while the RNC increasingly freaks out.

So shall I put in 10:31 PM as the Bush campaign TOD? I'm doing paperwork so I might as well add that to the list right? Get it all done at once.

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