Quentin Tarantino's prescience has been making the rounds:
Nate Silver agrees:
We pride ourselves on being skeptical of the conventional wisdom here at FiveThirtyEight…. But being skeptical is not the same thing as being a contrarian. There are plenty of times when the conventional wisdom is right. This is probably one of those times.
I was appalled by Bush's performance last night, even by Jeb-standards. He consumed only 24 more seconds of blather time than did Rand Paul, who was virtually invisible. For the most important two hours of his political life, he came overrehearsed and underwhelming. He can't really want this. If he does, no matter. The money will now seek safer refuge — and that's not a question of conventional wisdom; it's an inescapable fact.
At least we won't have to endure another Clinton-Bush contest.
I agree he's probably done. But I'm interested in seeing what his money machine does to either try to prevent it or at least damage those they deem responsible for Jeb's misfortune, either out of pure vengefulness or as an ill-fated last ditch effort to rescue the campaign.
Rubio in particular has all kinds of so-far-unmentioned skeletons in his closet. Would an angry and resentful Team Jeb drag them out just to exact revenge? I put nothing past the Bush family when it comes to dirty and negative campaigning (carried out by their goons, and never the candidate). And then there's Trump, of course. Who knows what kind of seedy dirt is out there, possibly a Google search away, that Jeb's oppo researchers might dump into the campaign?
I suppose his SuperPAC is free to align itself with another candidate - and its biggest donors might prefer that to an orgy of hopeless negative ads on Jeb's way out, so maybe there will be no supernova of ugliness. But it bears watching.
Posted by: Turgidson | October 29, 2015 at 03:48 PM
I should have said "Rubio is rumored to have" skeletons. It is something commonly noted by pundits/columnists/etc. who don't think he's ready for prime time, but I don't know a ton about what the skeletons actually are or if they'd damage him.
Posted by: Turgidson | October 29, 2015 at 03:50 PM
Can a case be made any candidate isn't toast? The establishment backup options Silver mentions, Rubio, Christie, Kasich and Romney don't seem to be capturing many imaginations. Things can change quickly in politics, but for now all the conventional options seem equally dismal. If any of the protest candidates gets the nomination they'll most likely get creamed in the general. Christie? Really, Nate?
Posted by: Bob | October 29, 2015 at 04:20 PM
The grades were assigned on the basis of whether or not the debate improved their chances and to what degree. Tough to judge since they are trying to guess how much they improved among the the Republican primary voting base. Christie had no place to go but up. At this point it is like trying to decide which turd floats best.
Posted by: Peter G | October 29, 2015 at 05:21 PM
Best line in Nate's piece? In emergency exhume Mitt.
Posted by: Peter G | October 29, 2015 at 05:26 PM
The Village media is trying like hell to make Rubio a contender. We'll see how that plays out. I'm in the Charles Pierce camp on Rubio - not entirely an empty suit, but a lightweight who can't navigate the field of rakes between him and the nomination. WHAP.
I fully expect there to be articles forthcoming from establishment GOP water carriers David f'ing Brooks and Ron "Severe Dementia" Fournier about how Rubio's a different kind of politician, able to bridge the divides caused by Obama's failed leadership. How Rubio's failure on immigration shows his perseverance. How his tax plan will cause flying unicorns that fart money to bless the USA with its greatest prosperity since the days of St. Reagan.
It's highly doubtful, however, that any of the demented zombies currently planning to vote for Carson and Trump will care what Brooks and Fournicatier have to say.
Posted by: Turgidson | October 29, 2015 at 05:45 PM
For a second there I felt sorry for Jeb... a little like how I feel sorry Dubya sometimes. But then I remember stuff like Terry Schiavo.
Posted by: Marc | October 29, 2015 at 07:31 PM
So the wife and I are watching Rachel Maddow while she went through the awesomely terrible reviews Jeb has received across the entire political spectrum for his debate performance. At which point my wife drily observes, see Jeb is a uniter. And I blew Diet Pepsi out of my nose.
Posted by: Peter G | October 29, 2015 at 08:20 PM
And, Peter, I would've spewed on my keyboard if I'd had anything in my mouth when I read your comment!
Posted by: RM | October 29, 2015 at 08:30 PM
Just off the top of my head, he lied about the circumstances of his family moving to the US, his tax plan is a huge giveaway to the top 1%, he's a neocon as bad as any, he was part of a Congressional group to legislate giving immigrants legal status, his other policies contradict almost everything the Latino community supports and there are supposedly a lot of iffy financial dealings he's been close to.
Posted by: Bob | October 30, 2015 at 08:28 AM
Maybe in that 30 second wide context it makes a kind of sense. But I ain't buying.
Posted by: Bob | October 30, 2015 at 08:34 AM
And he signed the first Stand Your Ground law as governor of Florida so I blame Jeb Bush for George Zimmerman.
Posted by: Anne J | October 30, 2015 at 08:34 AM
Especially Carson, who's entire campaign is based virtually on faith alone. The fact checkers are having a field day with his debate performance, but it won't tarnish his halo.
Posted by: Bob | October 30, 2015 at 08:41 AM
And like clockwork, David f'n Brooks has a Rubio-fluffing column up. Don't worry about the CONTENT of Rubio's plans, David assures us, listen to what he SAYS about his plans.
Cram it up your ass, Bobo.
Posted by: Turgidson | October 30, 2015 at 11:58 AM