RealClearPolitics's Wisconsin polling average has Clinton up, over Sanders, by 1 point.
I don't buy it. Nor do I buy today's FiveThirtyEight estimation: "According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 64% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary." Just three days ago, FiveThirtyEight gave "Clinton an 84 percent chance at winning the primary." That's quite a "winning" drop.
I do smell another Michigan upset: Wisconsin is overwhelmingly white, and its primary is open. On the fuzzier side of forecasting, the Clinton camp has taken to talking up the all-consuming importance of New York, which suggests its internal polling fails to mirror the RealClearPolitics average.
If I'm correct in my olfactory suspicions, it will at least keep things interesting on the Democratic side of this year's political ledger. That's the upside — a kind of voyeuristic one — to this seemingly endless Clinton-Sanders contest. And from where I sit, it's the only upside.
Because a detached, dispassionate view of this race tells me that Bernie Sanders is approaching the point of causing irreparable harm to the barbarians' worst nightmare — that being the far more electable Hillary Clinton — what with passionate celebrity wingnuts appearing on popular cable-news programs and encouraging likeminded wingnuts to go politically postal.
I distrust political passion, as did Lincoln. "Reason — cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason" was that to be properly sought both in the law and in politics, according to Abe, and it was that which he practiced. Bernie Sanders inspires the alternative, and it's causing too many of his adherents to lose their grip on reality.
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