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Your host, PM 'Papa' Carpenter


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October 24, 2016


if the rumors about the pro-Trump voters dumping Ryan are correct, you might not have Paul Ryan to kick around anymore.

And Marco Rubio is close to being tied with Murphy here in FL. KNOW HOPE.

Unless you decide to start writing about high fashion or something I'm pretty sure I'm guaranteed to check out whatever it is you have on offer. That being said I would not count out having wonderful subjects to tackle post election. This is history live. If you felt like taking a break no one could possibly condemn you. Go write a book maybe.

I'm not sure how you resist the urge to follow what will ensue whether or not the Democrats retake the Senate and the less likely House. But its bound to damned interesting.

So there appears to be some concern among quite intelligent people about the possibility that a Clinton blowout or the appearance of such might reduce Democratic turnout. Max said as much below and I have voiced my fears of the same thing in the past. Those fears are gone as far as I am concerned. The blood is in the water and nothing will stop the feeding frenzy now. Trump has grievously offended too many people to stop it.

But I would draw attention to this graph from 538 for it shows a fascinating thing.

The beautiful symmetry of those curves tell you something profound I think and that is the true nature of media news cycles. It is not a thing of days as many speak of it. Their wavelength is months. I feared Clinton might peak too early at one point but I look at those curves and their increasing divergence and I see 400 plus Electoral College votes.

Btw if it doesn't initially display, the graph you want to look at is chance of winning.

You must envy Mr. Limbaugh in this regard. He's been preparing for a smooth transition from Pres. Obama to Mrs. Clinton for years.

PM if you get really bored post election you could always try educating urban liberals on the workings of representative democracy in a reality where the House and the Senate both skew power to more rural states and smaller cities - vote clustering as the NYT calls the concentration in urban areas, in addition to Gerrymandering. 538 has the Democratic candidate in Missouri leading Blount after a commercial in which the Democrat assembled an AR 15 assault rifle blindfolded. And I'm pulling for him, whatever his politics - the old inside the tent outside the tent male urination metaphor comes to mind, much as it pains me to think that a Democratic Senate majority if it exists will include Joe Mancin.

While I personally could live and prosper in a Bernie style socialist utopia, legislative power requires winning elections in places that could benefit -and do benefit - from Democratic policies, places where people feel condescended to by Washington and the media - all those people in flyover country that folks elite enough to work as journalists and many populating these posts lump into great monoliths and stereotype as if Appalacian coal miners and small town Kansas are all of a type and working class white men are as uniform as MacDonalds packaging. While I don't know Hillary Clinton personally, in a prosperous period of my life now past I spent a number of long weekends in long conversations with people close enough to the Clintons to have babysat Chelsea and even be appointed as an ambassadorship by Bill. Unless she's fundamentally changed what she knows and who she is, HRC actually does want to be a President for everyone and will practice politics that try to bring in a broader swath of the country geographically - her buddy former governor of Iowa, Tom Vilsack makes that case for her and I am one who believes him. Arne Carlson former GOP governor of Minnesota makes that case for her. It's all well and good to be excited about Elizabeth Warren but Claire McCaskil and Amy Kovisahers (please forgive misspelling their names) type people represent constituencies where ground needs to be gained for more Progressive ideals. We can look back on the primaries now and give thanks for the older African American voters in the South (as they were lumped together as a voting group in media at the time) who came out for Hillary and IMHO provided adult supervision the Democrats desperately needed.

Hillary Clinton is not polarizing for her politics if you think about what most Americans believe - she's polarizing because Republicans are scared of the Clintons and have devoted endless resources demonizing both Clintons. And I for one hope that "nasty woman" gives them the nightmares they deserve.

On the other hand PM maybe you just need more polarizing commenters to drive up your site metrics. Five or six more Duffs maybe to wind everybody up.

Fear not, Gracious Host. I have been a reader of this site for twelve or thirteen years now, most of them Trump-free. It was your brilliant insights after the 2004 Bush "mandate" that gave me hope. You may think your talent for fresh perspective has gone dormant, but it is still very active today whether you realize it or not. The talent won't die after we wake up from the orange nightmare.

Lovely comment, Anne J. I also believe that "Gracious Host" will find plenty to write about post election. After all, the Trump fanatics are so loud it's unfathomable that they'll just dissipate Actually, the ascendance of unadulterated Trumpism may be just the ticket for the democratic party to win the state legislatures, mayoral and county commissioner seats. Hell, let's throw in mosquito control offices too.

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