Wendy Sherman, President Obama's undersecretary of state for political affairs, 2011-2015:
[Trump] has demanded that [our European partners] agree to new language on Iran’s ballistic missile development and inspections of Iranian military installations, and he has asked for a change in the timeline of the nuclear deal so that the restrictions on Iran will not expire. In essence, he has asked Europe for help changing the terms of the deal itself … [and] is
demanding that they solve a political problem he created by campaigning against the deal….
If the White House rips up the Iran deal, it will give the United States exactly what it needs least: international isolation. The deal was negotiated by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, coordinated by the European Union, and endorsed by a 15-to-0 vote in the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Trump will not isolate Iran by nixing the deal; he will isolate America.
Somewhat downplayed by Sherman is that which is most frightening: the almost inescapable prospect of a military conflict with Iran. Trump's new national security adviser, John Bolton, still "believes that the United States should have bombed Iran years ago, rather than negotiating an international agreement to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon," which by all accounts has been accomplished, peacefully. Nonetheless, "Trump appears committed to killing" the accord, and "Bolton's appointment has only cemented the expectation that the nuclear deal’s life expectancy is short," muses Sherman. Trump's refusal to recertify Iran's compliance (the deadline is May 12) "will increase American calls for military action against Iran as the only viable option."
For an intellectually challenged president who once wondered aloud why we have nuclear weapons if we can't use them, we cannot rule out such a U.S. strike on Iran. The civilian toll? "One key site that would almost certainly be targeted in a bombing campaign, the uranium-conversion facility at Isfahan," noted Time magazine in 2012, "is located on the city’s doorstep; toxic plumes released from a strike would reach the city center within an hour, killing or injuring as many as 70,000 and exposing over 300,000 to radioactive material," many of whom would die in the hours and days to follow.
In 2013, Mother Jones looked at "What Would Happen if Israel Nuked Iran." Assuming a 100-kiliton nuke is a 100-kiliton nuke — that is, its origin of production being irrelevant — "A nuclear assault on the city of Arak, the site of a heavy water plant central to Iran’s nuclear program, would potentially kill 93% of its 424,000 residents. Three 100-kiloton nuclear weapons hitting the Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas would slaughter an estimated 94% of its 468,000 citizens.... A multi-weapon strike on Kermanshah, a Kurdish city with a population of 752,000, would result in an almost unfathomable 99.9% casualty rate."
And should we go full Boltonesque: An "attack on the Iranian capital of Tehran using five 500-kiloton weapons would … kill seven million people — 86% of the population."
If we were to use conventional weapons, how would Iran likely retaliate? Last year, the website Just Security predicted that Iran would readopt cyberwarfare against the United States. Wired magazine wrote that "the U.S. [would have ] to keep Iran from blocking the ultra-important Strait of Hormuz … through which flows around 20 percent of the world's oil and liquid natural gas supplies. And America has to protect its energy-producing allies in the Persian Gulf, or else there will be no oil or gas to send through the Strait." Also, "Iran … can use long-range conventionally armed missiles or drones against large military or urban targets as terror weapons. It can attack sporadically and unpredictably in a war of attrition or attempt to 'swarm' U.S. and Gulf naval forces." Iran could "hit Riyadh or Kuwait City."
Concluded Wired: "Some politicians may be calling for a preemptive strike on Iran. There's a reason military planners are so wary."
But who's the unwariest politician on earth? The only guy with the say-so.