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June 28, 2018

Comments

Anyone who thought this would be a long, drawn out fight hasn't been paying attention.

Well, I'll admit, my attention-paying hasn't been the greatest lately. However, I do see a small chance that McConnell wants this to drag into the election to galvanize his base into coming out for the mid-terms.

Unlike Democrats, Republicans are unified and know how to play their cards.

Well they've been playing their cards a long time now. But I thought all they needed to do was show slobbering fealty to Dear Leader to win?

Going forward, this will no doubt be the case (from a friend)....:

Daily Deep State Report
28 June 2018
End of the World Edition

- Justice Kennedy announced he'll retire at end of summer...Dems start hoping to stall Trump's nominees...here's another downer: this will galvanize the GOP more than Dems...now all the social issues...guns, abortion, gay marriage will come to forefront of fall elections...overshadowing Trump/Russia investigation...my prediction...McConnell doesn't cram a new justice in...lets that vacancy sit there festering away...whipping up the GOP base...Blue Wave just hit a sandbar way out at sea

Commenter (a lawyer): Let me be a bit more cynical than that ... they have a nominee, he lets the Dems delay - uses the fact that we have X ready to go, but the Dems are delaying him - uses THAT (an actual person) to gin up the base. If it's a vacancy, it's hypothetical, if it's a real person - then it energizes folks - when the party fights (unlike the Dems did). It's crap, because he can force the vote but let the Dems look like obstructionists, use it, and if he loses and the Dems DO retake the Senate - vote on him during the Lame Duck session.

There is no downside to McConnell for this. He gets a great campaign issue to energize their base, and if it fails to hold the Senate, you can still approve him.

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I'm afraid this is how it will play out.

PM thanks for your clear-head. Josh Marshall says some similar things as do people who wrote him:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-critical-question-facing-democrats-and-the-court

One of his writers: "We should all tell the Democrats not to overplay this SCOTUS seat, especially as a fight over abortion rights. The seat is lost already. Better to let the right score its touchdown fast, in September, and be able to go into the November elections with a broader message. If, by any chance, Trump and McConnell realize that it would be to their political benefit to drag this out to a post November vote, well look out what you wish for. Energized Christian right voters will deliver more GOP seats in ND, MO, IN, MT, etc. Democrats, having argued to wait, will be much worse off when waiting backfires."

Kevin Drum is uncertain:

"On the other hand, the midterms are all about the Resistance. They’re all about the fight, showing a spine, and turning out the base. Wouldn’t a pro forma fight deflate all that? If Dems don’t blow up a few things, the base might get disgusted and just stay home. That means we need to declare war.

"This alternative hadn’t really occurred to me. Rationally, a pro forma fight is almost certainly the best bet. But politics isn’t about rationality. It’s about inspiring your own side and deflating the other side. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a single strategy which accomplishes that here. Any ideas?"

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