Does this look like a far-left party?

Here are the latest standings among Democratic presidential candidates. (I'll relate these political clichés now to relieve someone of pointing them out later: Yes, it's early in the race, it's only 2019; a lot could happen between now and November 2020; the numbers will dramatically shift as the moneyless drop out; and Joe Biden is old.)

The CNN survey was conducted among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by SSRS (FiveThirtyEight's rating: A-) just after Biden's announcement last Thursday, so just as obvious as the above, his rather wild upward swing could represent a temporary blip.

Biden 39%
Sanders 15%
Warren 8%
Buttigieg 7%
O’Rourke 6%
Harris 5%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Castro 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Inslee 1%
Swalwell 1%
Williamson 1%
Yang 1%
de Blasio <1%
Ryan <1%
Bennet 0%
Delaney 0%
Hickenlooper 0%
Messam 0%
Moulton 0%

From CNN's reporting, which contains the most astonishing results to my thinking, there is this: "That puts Biden more than … roughly 30 points ahead of … Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%)." Moreover, excluding Sanders at 15%, the polling results confine Biden's chief competitors (Booker, Harris, O'Rourke, Buttigieg and Warren) to a rather pathetic grouping of 2% to 8%.

Warren, especially, held a blockbuster of a campaign announcement, raised a bundle of cash, and has probably debuted more progressive programs than the others put together. Yet she's stuck at 8%.

If one adds O'Rourke and Buttigieg's numbers to Biden's — the first two aren't particularly strong on the left — it's tempting to conclude that for all the talk of the Democratic Party having careened far leftward, polling suggests that the party has never before been so vigorously moderate. That may be an overstatement. But I doubt it.

Comments

[Peter G]

Something happened yesterday that I found kind of interesting. Beto waded into policy waters and came out with what I would consider a fairly ambitious plan on the climate problem. For context, a lot of the criticism of the male candidates has centered around the fact that they were getting an unfair amount of media attention despite having said little about actual policies in their campaigns. His reward was to be savaged by the GND crowd. And I do mean assaulted.

My take on this, and in the light of what isn't happening for Warren despite her very obvious policy chops, is that there is little point in joining the policy wars. Especially since, barring a revolution in the Senate in 2020, none of it has the tiniest chance of becoming law. It is very crowded over there in policyland and very very vicious.

[Max]

"Bernie could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and not lose a Bernie Brother." Beto still looks like a lightweight.

[SR]

That is not the conclusion I draw from these data. Everyone I know has a favorite candidate who is not Biden. Mine is Warren. But all think he has the best chance of ousting the current vile infestation.

[Peter G]

Here is some more data: https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617

[Peter G]

Yep.

[shsavage]

I'm making a list...

[Max]

Yep, I've got mine. This looks more and more like '92 and '08.