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August 23, 2019

Comments

I can't see Trump abandoning his very progressive trade war policies any time soon, or at all. That is what got him votes from various unions and other nominal lefties in key states.

Agreed. There's also the fact that if anybody tells him he's being stupid he'll just double down out of pure toddler spite. He'd drag us all over a cliff just to show us that he can because we weren't "nice" to him.

I just wonder if the lefties recognize their own trade policies in his idiocy. Or if they do, do they merely think he's just doing it wrong and they would be so much better at it?

Odd you should ask that or perhaps not odd at all because you generally do see the problems pretty clearly. And it is a political problem for the left progressives. I read a rather long piece of bullshit courtesy of one Jared Berstein who you may not recognize but is a highly regarded economist on the progressive side of the equation. And you will never guess what it was about. Except that already have. The reason I call it bullshit is that it basically argued that Trump was progressiving wrong in his trade wars. And doing it for the wrong reasons.

Alas as an argument Bernstein failed rather miserably in this attempt for what Trump is doing is exactly what left progressives were demanding be done. And it is working out exactly the way they were told it would by guys like Krugman.
On the plus side it seems to be dawning on more than a few of your protectionist lefties that this isn't working at all. And support for free trade is climbing rapidly.

He'll cave to the Chinese to get a deal, any deal, and declare himself a winner. The tariffs will fade like Kim Jong Un's promise to denuclearize, so the stock market could regain its footing. His best hope is goosing the stock market with another round of corporate tax cuts because most people regard the economy as synonymous with their 401K. It's probably too early to do that right now. If he could pull that off alongside demoting Jerome Powell to coffee boy and installing a toady to push a rate cut through in the Spring, he'd be playing to his strength. But, where playing to his strength is concerned, I think he screwed up on the name-calling which is normally his forte. Couldn't he have come up with something more childish and derisive than "Sleepy Joe"? And, another whole year of "Pocahontas"? No new material? It's disappointing. It could be his downfall.

If and when a deal is reached, it will be too late for the farmers. The Chinese and other nations have already established new sources for their imports and have no incentive to switch back to the U.S.

Earlier this year my financial advisor pointed out that CDs have a yield curve inversion, meaning 2 year CDs have a higher return than 10 year. Bonds are now the same. I was just reading an article about negative interest rates, where the lender gets paid back less than they've loaned. This has already been happening with the banking systems of Japan, Germany, France, and other European countries. The U.S. may follow. Nobody seems to be sure what the impact will be but I'm guessing we're already in deep shit.

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