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Biden

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« A little something different | Main | Biden did the job, and Bloomberg … failed? »

February 26, 2020

Comments

Bernie's path to the White House depends on his generating significantly higher turnout percentages among Millennials than have previously been recorded, either in past election cycles or the current primary/caucus season. And there's a clear downside beyond the Millennials non-participation. Bernie's rhetoric is just as likely to pull center-right non-voters out in horror.

There's an interesting analysis of non-voters by Yascha Mounk in The Atlantic this morning: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/truth-about-non-voters/607051/ -- My take on his piece is that a reasonable Bayesian prior estimation of the election outcome would start with the assumption that the non-voting population is distributed across the political spectrum in about the same way as the voting population (I imagine that's what Nate Silver is doing). So when Bernie talks about bringing out new voters, he has to hope that only a segment of non-voters turn out. But it's equally likely that his rhetoric will turn out right wing non-voters too.

All that having been said, I note that if you're a dog-barbecue aficionado running for dog catcher, you might stand a decent chance of success, if the election were being held in Korea. But this isn't Korea.

I read your stuff and it causes the old memory banks to pop out strange things. This one made me think of a satirical piece by P.J. O'Rourke on the art and science of driving drunk. Mainly because of his first observation that the very best kind of car to drive drunk in is a rental car. And that right there describes Bernie and the Democratic Party.

re: joe's incomparable political experience

God, would he just show some of it!!!

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