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Your host, PM 'Papa' Carpenter


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February 12, 2020


If you have a MAGA hat they can eat that and hopefully it gives them indigestion. You look great in the fedora.

This is cool graphic Basically it describes the migratory patterns of voters. The non-voters includes people who did not vote in 2016 but were eligible to vote and also voters who are newly eligible to vote. It is quite striking. The candidates who were best able to pick up these non-voters in 2016 were Buttigieg then Klobuchar and then Biden. Sanders got a small percentage and Warren none worth noting. Bloomberg was not in this race of course and that will complicate things in the next races.

Joe has a problem. How big a problem we shall soon see depending how the votes break in more diverse states where his support among the black community which, while large, may be eroding. The self fulfilling prophecy of prognostications has always been a feature of campaigns and one has to accept that. If it is to be all about beating Trump and not about ideology then one has to expect movement in voter preferences as voters move to whomever they think will win or can win.

It simply cannot be ignored however that Bernie lost a lot of his 2016 support and isn't bringing in a large number of new voters. Buttigieg has done that best in NH.

Joe's seems like he's only going through the motions, like he's running because people wanted him to but his heart isn't in it. At this point, he makes "Low Energy Jeb" look like Hurricane Katrina. That, too, is a way of ensuring that supporters move elsewhere.

"It simply cannot be ignored however that Bernie lost a lot of his 2016 support and isn't bringing in a large number of new voters."

Yes, I think that many potential Bernie voters noticed that he had a heart attack a few months ago, even if the press has forgotten about it completely. No way that event did not put a cap on Bernie's support, IMO.

That's right the MAGAts are voting for him in the primaries because they want him to be Trump's sacrificial lamb.

Joe's done. And has been for months.

I agree. It did have some effect. But I can't quite figure out why this did not translate into support for his progressive alternative Warren. It is curious.

It kind of looks like to me that he is running the campaign he can afford to run. Which is relatively low key to be sure. Can't do that forever. Our host early on picked Klobuchar as a serious potential candidate. Which really caused me to look at her closely. He may may have been right all along.

I like her too. But can she beat Trump?

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