What's the present status of Biden vs. Trump? Before reading, take a drink.

Released just this morning is this ABC News/Washington Post poll, graded A+ by FiveThirtyEight. The poll was conducted 22-25 March among registered voters (it remains too early to survey you-bet-I-will voters) with a sampling of 1,003, has a 3.5 percent margin of error and blocs of Democrats-Republicans-independents of 30-24-37 percent, respectively.

Regrettably, the poll was also released in the absence of a trigger warning — which for once, I really could have used, even though the poll's findings were predictable. After all, these are Democrats we're talking about.

Joe Biden has … only bare majority support within his party and a massive enthusiasm gap in a November matchup against Donald Trump. Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24 percent – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic….

Another challenge for Biden … is this: Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who prefer Bernie Sanders for the nomination, 15 percent say they’d back Trump over Biden in the fall…. This is familiar: Twenty percent of Sanders supporters said they’d vote for Trump in spring 2016….

There’s déjà vu in these results: Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago. She, too, had a slim lead among Democrats for the nomination and ran essentially evenly with Trump among registered voters. And she lagged in enthusiasm, with a low of 32 percent very enthusiastic in September 2016. Biden is 8 points under that mark now.

The effects of enthusiasm on 2020 turnout cannot be overstated, especially for Democrats, since Republicans are both fanatical in their support of Trump and strangely wise enough to comprehend the power of the vote. Trump's vast incompetence and widely impeachable behavior have little to no negative effect on Republican voters; indeed, his wretchedness inspires them.

Meanwhile, though knowing that anybody with merely a pulse and no bunco-laden rap sheet would be a boundless improvement over Trump, three-fourths of Democrats sit and ponder, and sit and ponder, if voting for probably the most presidentially qualified man since LBJ deserves their strong enthusiasm. This familiar phenomenon is, to instead understate things, distressing.

And then there's Bernie, dear, devoted, man of the people, horribly destructive Bernie. The days in which he could be firing up his 85 percent are flying away like calendar pages in an old movie. The 15 percent are hopeless, of course; but many among the 85, being tepid at best in their enthusiasm, could use some of the senator's rousing, roiling, evangelical tub-thumping for Joe. Turnout among this bloc is, or could be, singularly critical to Biden's victory. And yet Bernie just sits and ponders — much akin to the shameful three-fourths of Dems.

Panic is not yet called for. But it seems to me that panic, as a motivator, would not be a bad thing. For in politics, complacency can be a killer.

Comments

[Freesia]

Thank you but I don't care for a drink. It's a time for being stone cold sober.

"15 percent say they’d back Trump over Biden in the fall." That right there says it all about Bernie and his rabble. They aren't voters, progressive or otherwise. They're anarchists. They can't be given any credence for any of their alleged high ideals ever again. They couldn't vote for Trump and actually believe in those lofty goals. They're just about destruction. If the percentage of Bernie voters don't vote for Trump it won't be because they were persuaded and comforted in to it. It's because they grew the heck up. No point wasting time on them. They'll do it on their own and aren't worth the time or energy.

So right now the Democrats need to free themselves of any impulse, expending any energy or resources on courting them, starting with Joe Biden refusing to debate the filthy old fraud in April. Cut off Bernie's oxygen and given him no acknowledgement and treat him like the pariah and the degenerate he is. Pour resources into energizing the black vote, the suburban woman vote, help the Never Trumpers in energizing their Republican refugees, Rock the Vote with the young voters, and start running Anti-Bernie ads - preferably online because that's where his privileged little pep club (and Russian bots) party.

And rot the DNC who not once but now TWICE have allowed this leech to feed on their party and hurt their own candidate and country.

I'm so mad I almost can't live in my body. This should never have been allowed to happen. The Democratic Party leadership aren't victims here. They're accessories.Bernie didn't break into their party. They gave him the keys to the front door.

[Anne J]

But could it be that the coronavirus is so much on people's minds that theyre not thinking that much about November right now?

[Lucidamente]

Take the long view.

https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/

[Freesia]

Possibly.

By the way, if you want to throw up, check Trump's twitter feed where he's put up a string of tweets about his ratings and viewer numbers from the daily pressers on the coronavirus. It's sickening. He seems to think he's in a reality show or what someone labeled his very own Hunger Games.

We're in real trouble Anne.

[Anne J]

A majority of the country knew that in 2016, but we were overruled.

[Freesia]

Well if we're overruled again then America was a nice moment in history, a "great experiment". Because we won't survive another 4 years of him. Actually it's not him, it's all the people he convinced to sell out their country for perks or just revenge. America is just going to be a gaudy pit like one of his tacky buildings and trashy family if he wins again.

I'm watching the Gershwin Prize concert as I type with Garth Brooks. He's worked hard and did something with his life and is one of those examples of the American dream, created good things, good family, good man, talented, kind, gave back. The contrast as I type is startling to ponder. No reason to type this paragraph but it just makes me feel sad.