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May 26, 2020

Comments

I feel pretty good about Arizona, but I’ll have to call your bet on Florida. It seems to be getting kookier and wackier by the year, and kooks and whackjobs love themselves some Trump.

I hope the Biden campaign concentrates their energies heavily in "Pennsyltucky". Don't take PA for granted. He'll take the urban areas and a good swath of the state, but there's a hard core of Appalachian mindsight in that section and they should take nothing for granted.

Arizona and Florida...I won't venture a guess. Heavy senior presence in both and you'd think that the GOP basically, no actually, announcing that Grandma and Grandpa should just lay down and die for their grandchildren's economic future would be enough to have them shaking their canes in fury but I don't know. I don't count on it. And like Jason said Florida is kooky. A state that could elect a criminal creep like Rick Scott as governor and then send him on to the senate could easily re-elect Trump.

You know, I don't really know enough about this to really weigh in.

I think Arizona is a definite possibility for Biden, especially if he selects Janet Napolitano for his VP. And let us not forget that Martha McSally is pretty well loathed throughout the state, and only holds her seat by virtue of an appointment to McCain's seat after she lost to Sinema. Very few people like her here. And Arizona now has 11 electoral votes to Wisconsin's 10.

Probably the currently most credible name in polling, Rachel Bitecofer, has had Arizona in the Dem column even before the Covid outbreak. She now has the Senate breaking Democratic. The "sleeper" state is North Carolina. You and I are on the same page on Janet Napolitano.

I'm almost gleeful in anticipation of North Carolina, given the present kerfluffle about the GOP convention. If the Governor caves and the convention is a full-on sardine fest, as they usually are, we're going to see a huge pandemic resurgence traceable directly to it. If the Governor doesn't cave, and Trump makes good on his threat, where's he gonna hold it? No other state wanted the GOP even before the pandemic. Or perhaps they'll pull it from Charlotte and hold it on the Outer Banks, where we can all pray for a Cat-5...

I love the image of them as sardines.

How much is the Richard Burr stock fiasco going to factor in do you think? Any real damage?

I just realized the above was confusing. I don't mean Burr in relation to the convention, but to Max's reference to NC as a "sleeper state".

It might help with a thumb on the scale against Tillis. Burr isn't up for re-election, and has already announced he's not going to run in 2022. It could all help turn NC blue.

And now, we have the "Fools Rush In" denouement: https://www.thedailybeast.com/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-offers-state-to-host-republican-convention

Grant Woods, the former chief of staff to the late Sen. John McCain (R), told CNN’s Ron Brownstein: “If the Republican Party wants to continue to push in the direction of being anti-education, and they want to be the party of … the bigoted, then they are going to go down the drain in the Southwest, because that’s not what the Southwest is." Nothing says anti-education like making refusal to wear a mask a defining symbol of your movement. -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/revenge-mask-wearing-americans/

I grew up in Appalachia and I can tell you for every apathetic Democrat that didn't bother to vote in 2016, there will be 3 formerly apathetic yokels fired up for Trump this go'round.

So true. They're apostles of Trump at this point. A holy war.

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