Is Trump's campaign in trouble? Not really. It appears to be dead.

The breakdown of Joe Biden's impressive 14 point lead over Trump in the latest Sienna poll, which earns an A+ from FiveThirtyEight:

Increasingly I believe Biden's margin will continue to grow in other polls as well, since Trump never changes; he's a static character with one temperament: obnoxiousness. That explains his narrowing base — the macrocosm of obnoxiousness. Trump is the only incumbent in modern history who panders exclusively to a shrinking minority of voters, which strikingly reveals itself in the numbers above.

Adding to his campaign of exclusion are, more pointedly, his bumbling, desultory, and now oblivious response to the covid pandemic, which accounts for the economy's cratering, and his racist thus politically incompetent reactions to the Black Lives Matter movement. As the Times notes from the Sienna poll's internals, "white voters under 45 are overwhelmingly supportive" of the movement. And white voters were all he had to begin with.

So why, over the next four months, would general polling change when Trump doesn't?

Comments

[Freesia]

No, Trump won't change. He seems to think being President is rounds of applause from (ever tinier) crowds like some aging rock star, and holding the keys to the country so he can pilfer and use officials to get even with enemies real or imagined. That's it.

I do think that general polling can change though, in terms of his numbers going up, brought about by some rotten false narrative brought about by his associates (or the horse race press) or an October surprise.

Not to be a Downer, but I'm not popping the champagne til the race is called for Biden.

It's good to see this poll though. Rain in the Sahara.

[Anne J]

I'm not popping champagne until Biden is sworn into office in January. Who knows what stunts Trump or his sugardaddy Putin will do to cheat his way to victory or what he will do to try to hold onto power if he loses. Trump is every bit as obnoxious in 2016 as he is now, or he's maybe gotten worse since becoming president. But back in 2016 his every despicable word and deed would get drowned out by the media's constant chanting of "But her emails!" Chris Matthews was particularly offensive. So glad that woman hater is off the air now.

[Ivory Bill Woodpecker]

If and when we take this country back, something will have to be done about the wingnut media and the horse race media. I hope restoring and expanding the Fairness Doctrine, and anti-trust actions against the media conglomerates, will do the trick.

[Peter G]

The Idiot is running a primary campaign feeding crap to his ardent supporters. He doesn't seem to realize that this is actually an election campaign where you simply must appeal beyond your base. I will bet my bottom dollar that Trump's reaction will be to try to expand his base by being an ever more strident Idiot.

[Peter G]

Something you said about how Biden should handle Trump the other day, dismissively, made me think of a line P G Wodehouse used with some frequency: ...laughing down from lazy eyelids and flicking a speck of dust from the irreproachable Mechlin lace at my wrists. I've never been sure where Wodehouse got that but it certainly captures the spirit.

[Freesia]

What a great quote. And yep - like that.

You know I've never read PG Wodehouse. I don't know how I skipped him.

[Anne J]

And the best way to appeal to voters beyond your base when you are the incumbent is to show you have done things in office that were good for people who are not part of your base.

[Peter G]

Ah. I think I see a problem for him there.

[Anne J]

After using the latest death figures and dividing by 4, we are now up to 30,680.5 Benghazis.

[Peter G]

Pro rata cost in Congressional investigations would bankrupt America.