Former 538er Harry Enten, who now writes for CNN, reflects on Trump's miserable polling relative to other incumbents:
There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back are usually not incumbents and have never been elected incumbents in the polling era.
Since 1940, the only incumbent losing at this point in the cycle who would go on to win another term was Harry Truman. He, like Trump, was down around 10 points to Thomas Dewey in the early summer of 1948. But remember, Truman was not elected president before taking the 1948 election.
In terms of elected incumbents, Jimmy Carter was the one to be down by as much as Trump is right now. Carter went on to get crushed by Ronald Reagan in 1980.
The interesting point about Truman's "surprise" victory in 1948 is that it should not have been a surprise.
It became one mostly because all but one major pollster had stopped polling toward the end of October, since a Dewey victory seemed certain. In addition, Dewey's October lead was not that impressive; it averaged only 3.5 points. Last, the one polling operation — at the University of Michigan — that continued surveying likely voters discovered that undecideds were breaking for Truman. (That was similar to the joker in the deck in 2016's polling. As the election neared, polls showed that roughly 5 percent of voters were undecided, most of whom wound up choosing Trump. The polls weren't wrong, as is commonly believed. Clinton's loss was more the matter that nearly all observers — including myself — concentrated their predictions on her consistent, 2-3 point leads.)
President Carter's 1980 loss to Reagan was a Greek tragedy. Unlike Trump's tenure, in which all its wounds have been self-inflicted, Carter was battered by uncontrollable outside forces, mostly the energy crisis and, of course, the seemingly endless hostage situation in revolutionary Iran. The Carter campaign had prayed that Reagan would be the Republican nominee, since his reputation as a far-right wingnut remained firm. But the hostage crisis unfairly left Carter looking weak, which sank any hope of a win.
As for 2020? One merely needs to rephrase Mr. Enten's words: "In terms of elected incumbents, Donald Trump is the one to be down by as much as Carter was in 1980. Trump will go on to get crushed by Joe Biden."
Dewey also had a problem articulating why exactly he wanted to be president. Not unlike Ted Kennedy when he was asked. Did anyone see what Trump answered when asked what his priorities were for a second term? Yet another spaghettiword address.
Posted by: Peter G | June 27, 2020 at 12:25 PM
But Carter didn't have the Russians, Bill Barr and the electoral college to nudge him over the finish line. Oh and speaking of the Russians, have you heard the latest? The Kremlin has been paying bounties on American soldiers' heads to Taliban fighters and Trump has known about it since March and of course did nothing about it. Fuck elections. Get the guillotine.
Posted by: Anne J | June 27, 2020 at 12:43 PM
The most disgusting thing I've heard about Trump to date. Sickening.
The only more thing more disgusting will be the mealy mouthed response from Republicans or the quick shuffle and dart past the cameras when reporters try to get them to respond to questions.
Posted by: Freesia | June 27, 2020 at 12:53 PM
I am sure as this story gets bigger, and it will, Trump will be astonished that the person who was expected to do something about it was him. And that will be so unfair.
Posted by: Peter G | June 27, 2020 at 12:54 PM
I'm sure Susan Collins is quite "concerned" and "troubled" by it. Mealy mouthed doesn't begin to cover it. They let this criminal go free and the blood is on their hands as much as his. Add it to the blood of 125,000 COVID-19 victims on their watch. They don't fucking care and I would have more respect for them if they just admitted it. They all need to go.
Posted by: Anne J | June 27, 2020 at 01:36 PM
The media and the democrats are so mean to him, the poor dear. And I really hope you are right that this story will get bigger. I wouldn't mind seeing the Biden campaign or the Lincoln Project make some ads about it. Put the fat orange bastard on defense.
Posted by: Anne J | June 27, 2020 at 01:40 PM
They don't care about anything or anybody. Just power. Still reeling from the soldiers story, I came across this:
BREAKING: #60Minutes investigation reveals Trump knowingly allowed flawed #COVID19 antibody tests to circulate, leading to inaccurate data about virus spread, creating data to support re-openings, and potentially causing thousands more preventable death."
???
Posted by: Freesia | June 27, 2020 at 01:43 PM
You said, Anne.
Sadly, expect some to look at all of this and cross their arms and sneer some nonsense about how Biden and the Democrats are just as bad.
Posted by: Marc McKenzie | June 27, 2020 at 02:36 PM
I do hope the Lincoln Project does one of their blistering ads. When they do (and surely they will) I hope they splice in the old comments from Trump's sons from back before he ran, about how they don't have to worry about financing - they get most of their money from Russia.
And I hope the timing coincides with the release of his tax returns. I read somewhere that the court decision may be as early as this week (something about them doing it before they go on recess.)
Posted by: Freesia | June 27, 2020 at 06:56 PM
Here you go:
https://youtu.be/kiDkTOKI7Ro
Posted by: Anne J | June 27, 2020 at 07:45 PM
Thank you.
The last line is brutal "When Donald Trump tells you he stands by the troops, he does. Just not OUR troops. "
Oh I love these people. They know how to do this.
Posted by: Freesia | June 27, 2020 at 07:53 PM
I would bet they bought air time on Fox News in the swing states. They make ads that they know will push all of Trump's buttons and send him into a tizzy.
Posted by: Anne J | June 27, 2020 at 09:10 PM
Oh certainly. These are former (?) Republican operatives with serious campaign experience and if there's one thing they are good at it's going for the jugular. It's like a sport.
I've been fascinated by the Trump response. He and Pence "didn't know". It's ridiculous. He's not only the president, he's Commander-in-Chief (God help us.) But he wasn't informed that a foreign leader was paying to have our soldiers killed? Yeah. Right. That's not possible. Nobody with a brain could believe that.
At this point, he's gotten away with so much that I fully expect they'll try to sell this. I just wonder, at this stage, if he'll get away with it. People are starting to see the Emperor has no clothes.
Posted by: Freesia | June 27, 2020 at 10:03 PM
Speaking of Ted Kennedy, no recapitulation of the 1980 election is complete without mentioning the sabotage of the Carter presidency by the establishment Democrats. Somehow, that significant fact frequently escapes attention when Democrats discuss events of that year.
Probably the most fateful mistake in the history of the Democratic Party, and that's a charitable description.
They helped usher in 40 years of Reaganism and 40 years of GOP-lite, and, to this day, they refuse even to acknowledge their arrant treachery, or the effects of their corruption, which we experience even to this day.
Why, Kennedy and Tip O'Neill are celebrated today as heroes by the party, and never mentioned as midwives of the Reagan Revolution. Remarkable.
Posted by: Ed Doerr | June 28, 2020 at 11:20 AM
Have you seen their newest new one featuring the former Navy SEAL? Talk about tizzy:
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1278028522863427584
I like the part where he refers to "stomping the s*@t out of". More of this please.
Posted by: Freesia | June 30, 2020 at 02:20 PM
Yes I absolutely love it.
Posted by: Anne J | June 30, 2020 at 05:56 PM
In reply to Freesia
Posted by: Anne J | June 30, 2020 at 05:56 PM