And so it has come to pass - the fated, GOP schism. In ideological and ethical decline for decades, the Republican Party has exhaled perhaps its last breath as a unified force; its nonetheless thundering, extraordinary collapse destined by the self-inflicted, terminal diseases it has suffered.
In the course of purging the party of Trump and Trumpism, what is now the Old Guard, led by Mitch McConnell, will limp along in name and a semblance of administration — a mere apparition of its former itself, gruesomely crippled by its overindulgence of its former leader's assorted pathologies. The GOP shall proceed, one assumes, with its traditional gospel — namely, the showering of heavenly blessings on America's most comfortable through fiscal ruin and colossal misdirection.
Under whatever organizational name it adopts, Trumpism will be the dominant force, exsanguinating the ghostly body of Republicanism. Other than 1930s Teutonic race theory, no precise political doctrines will be discernible; the essence of Trumpism is simply the Führerprinzip. This development already played out via the 2020 absence of the Trumpian party's platform.
The most likely electoral upshot of the GOP's breakup will be a playback of the 1912 presidential contest. There, Democrat Woodrow Wilson was pitted against the GOP's Old Guardian Willam Howard Taft, who was also pitted against the break-off Bull Moose party's Theodore Roosevelt. The Democrat crushed the Republican, 435 Electoral Votes to 8, while the third-party Bull Mooser also crushed the Republican, with 88 EVs.
Hence from a purely political point of view, McConnell's purge of dominant Trumpism is a remarkable gamble. (Aside from the next presidential race, in the 2022 midterms Republican candidates will almost certainly undergo a preview of 2024, that is, the party's replicated thrashing of 1912.)
However, there is a stipulation, and it's a big one. If one assumes a repeat of history, then one must also recall Republicanism's revenge. T.R.'s compelled, breakaway movement vanished under the GOP's subsequent triumph in the 1920s over renegade-ism; the party swiftly receded into more traditional Taftism by way of Harding, Coolidge and Hoover — all of whom led to further ideological entrenchment and tight party control.
For now, though, McConnell et al.'s reported purge of internally reigning Trump and Trumpism has — indisputably, and more so unavoidably — impaled the Republican Party. It could not live with its pathogenic overlord, nor could it stay with him. Most of all, the party brought its schismatic impalement on itself.
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Addendum: In the interest of economy I cut this post short, but on second thought, I really should have added the alternative possibility of McConnell & Friends being the purged ones, who nevertheless could stage a comeback under the mantle of a conservative party, once Trumpers' acute excitability and long-term memory fade.