The American Association for Public Opinion Research has released a study on the accuracy of more than 500 nationwide presidential polls and nearly 1,600 state-level presidential polls conducted in 2020. The conclusions derived are less than auspicious for 2024: National polls missed the Biden- Trump
margin by 3.9 points, and in state polls, they missed it by 4.3 points. (I'd link to the report, but the AAPOR's website was "under maintenance" this morning, so I'm using Dan Balz's summary.)
The factual conclusions above, however, are less inauspicious than the report's final disappointment: "The task force members were not able to reach definitive conclusions on exactly what caused the problems in the most recent election polls and therefore how to correct their methodology ahead of the next elections," writes Balz.
Researchers dismissed the possibility of Trump voters having lied to pollsters; that education levels were inadequately weighed — one of 2016's mishaps; that certain social groups were "systematically underrepresented or overrepresented"; or that large numbers of late-deciding voters were overlooked — another 2016 issue — since voters, in 2020, decided early and firmly.
In the end, all the researchers could do was to venture a guess as to why the polls erred, which I'll put somewhat differently — but more realistically, I think — than did Balz and the researchers: Trump supporters distrust everyone outside their fevered, all-knowing bubble, pollsters as much as anyone; accordingly, they bought into the orange gnome's warnings about most election surveys being rigged against him, which resulted in an insufficient sampling of the soulless-to-the-polls.
Yet there is some hope. Surveys in 2018 performed reasonably well, and probably for the same reason which now provides at least a glimmer of optimism: There was no Trump on the ballot then, nor will there be next year, nor, likely, in 2024. Thus as disheartening as the AAPOR's report may be for those who thrill to each and every polling statistic — as I do — we may be able to get a better handle on where things stand throughout the next run-ups, and thereby correct course where necessary.