There is a certain irony, or paradox, hovering over the rapid spread of the Omicron variant in the U.S. — or so it seems to me.
The facts: The number of coronavirus cases is now higher than even that of last winter. At last week's end, confirmed cases reached nearly 200,000 daily, and that represented a staggering 65% increase over just the prior two weeks. Hospitalizations have also increased, although their statistical rise has not matched the rise in cases. This suggests the lesser severity of Omicron.
Another fact, however, is that deaths were up by 3% throughout the above period, averaging more than 1,300 a day. It would be natural to assume that the rise in deaths has corresponded to the rise of Omicron, especially since, as the Times reports, "experts warn that the surge of infections, combined with the fact that tens of millions of Americans remain unvaccinated, could still create a severe strain on the U.S. health system and lead to many more deaths."
It should be observed, however, that the variant cause of these potential deaths is not identified in the Times article; nor anywhere, that I know of, in the major press.
Which leads us to another fact, as reported by WebMD.com: The first case of the Omicron variant leading to death occurred only on Christmas Eve. And it came with its own peculiar circumstances: "The man, who was in his 50s and lived in Harris County, Texas, was unvaccinated and had previously been infected with COVID-19. He recently contracted the virus again, and it was confirmed as the Omicron variant."
In short, the 50-something man had recklessly tried to dodge covid-19 twice, and he lost. But he also had "underlying health conditions" — plus who knows the aftereffects of his first infection — which almost certainly contributed to the severity of his Omicron case. At any rate, as of last Friday there had been only one Death by Omicron.
In other words — and, I should add, so far — virtually everyone infected by Omicron, whether vaccinated or not, is undergoing less severity, which is reflected in the number of hospitalizations lagging behind confirmed cases. Meanwhile, unvaccinated Omicron-infected patients are acquiring some level — perhaps a significant level — of immunity to covid-19.
All of which suggests, to this layman, that Omicron could be the best thing to happen yet throughout this godawful plague. The rapidly spreading variant has the entire nation even closer on edge than it was a year ago, but it could be that Omicron will prove to be the killer of covid-19 itself.
As the recklessly unvaccinated acquire and overcome Omicron, immunity sets in and thus broader infectiousness diminishes and ultimately disappears.
I have not read of this possible upside anywhere. If it is an upside, epidemiologists would be enormously reluctant to note it publicly, since that would only unleash even more recklessness, more cases, more burdensome hospitalizations and, likely, more deaths, as in the case of the 50-something Texas man.
Of course I'm not an epidemiologist myself, so my theoretical thesis could be all wet. But the logic works. And if it shows to be true ... well, what irony: the virus killed itself.
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Update, 29 Dec.: At last, some reporting on this: "Omicron is undoubtedly becoming the dominant variant, and that could be good news: A new laboratory study carried out by South African scientists showed that people who had recovered from an infection with the variant might be able to fend off later infections from Delta." (NYT)