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« Someday, Putin's personal End Times? | Main | I don't know about this, Mr. Zelensky »

February 26, 2022

Comments

Peter G

Logic is not the issue here. Russia has nuclear weapons? So does America, Britain and France. Who is Putin going to use nuclear weapons against? A NATO nation and invite massive retaliation? Ukraine maybe? Seems an odd strategy annihilating your claimed brethren and to what point.

I am sticking to operational analysis from sound military analysts at this point. And their assessment is that Russia has fucked up mightily. Whatever his military has told him about their capabilities and readiness has been a stone cold lie. The wheels are coming off his cart. Apparently they imagined that if they just showed up Ukrainians would just surrender and such is not the case. Right now they have brigade size forces and sub units parked all over the place that don’t know where they are and no idea where they are going. They don’t have munition reloads or other adequate support. They don’t have heavy artillery deployed and couldn’t find targets smaller than cities to use it on if they did.

Ultimately what will stop this thing is Russian inability to maintain their military formations in the field. It is already happening. On top of that are the Russian people, bless their hearts, that are turning out in droves to oppose this Invasion and that is a very dangerous thing to do. The icing on the cake is the increasingly robust sanctions that are being implemented and which will severely impact the Russian economy. The panic is Russia is evident. They are now saying they will be seizing foreign owned assets in reply. To which the universal seems to be who cares?

The key point here is that foreign military forces fighting in Ukraine are both unnecessary at this time and would be counterproductive.

Back to nukes now. The current world order relies on nations that have nuclear weapons providing an umbrella of protection for nations that renounce them. Otherwise non-proliferation would be a joke. Everyone would need and want them and act accordingly. I note that North Korea has nukes. So does Israel. They might use them in extremis if they were invaded but they haven’t been able to extract anything for not using them. The reason is straightforward, it invites your own annihilation. I will therefore stand by my prediction that if Putin orders his military to use any such thing what he will get is a Russian bullet in his brain.

PM

This is entirely about logic. And you make my (understood) point for me. OF COURSE Putin would not use nuclear weapons. Not even Vlad is that M.A.D., so to speak. Yet the West backs off merely because he reminds us that he has them. So said Mr. Cohen, and so say many others. The logic is flawed, deeply.

Peter G

Ah. I was answering them not you. And incidentally not a few other pundits like Zack Beauchamp at Vox making the same bad arguments. Sorry if I was unclear. Maintaining the international order definitely includes preventing nuclear proliferation.

Peter G

I see why I was unclear now. I will separate my arguments. The nuclear argument against aiding Ukraine is stupid and superficial. The need to get boots on the ground in the Ukraine is the one I think is premature. Body bags have a very powerful sway on the public imagination. Not yet necessary. A flood of the right arms will be sufficient for now. Interesting developments are Germany is now shipping weapons to Ukraine and the right type too. Turkey is considering closing the Dardanelles to Russian military vessels. Which turns Sevastopol in Crimea into a parking lot for ships.

Sherman

Ukraine's Interior ministry asked local residents to take down street signs to confuse incoming Russian troops. The state road-signs agency took it one step further to help Russians understand where to go. The sign effectively shows all roads lead to “go fuck yourselves".

https://scontent.fphx1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274889206_10166535751950624_310566298855257760_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=9eYXye0R9HAAX97IE4S&_nc_ht=scontent.fphx1-2.fna&oh=00_AT_XB4jpIaRgjxwEgCCGMwY09pnuIiQlerl-hvUxFuzTmw&oe=621FF9A1

Peter G

So…it seems the Chernobyl sire, seized by the Russians is releasing elevated radiation levels. I wonder what the are digging up?

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