This morning's war reporting is rather peculiar. Among daily Ukrainian outlets and major U.S. press organs, only The NY Times features headline news of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast portion of the country.
The Times report is based on one direct source — Ukraine's commander in chief, who informed the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff yesterday that "there are fierce battles going on, as well as the transition from defensive operations to offensive actions in the Kharkiv and Izium areas" — and indirectly, the Institute for the Study of War.
Reported the ISW: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv city may disrupt Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv." Again, rather odd is that no Ukrainian news source has yet reported on the counteroffensive. At any rate, the push against Russia in the northeast is an unmistakable consequence of advanced weaponry and long-range artillery arriving in Ukraine from Western powers. It is these supplies that will eventually shove Russia back — and in time, out.
The ISW also related that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the first of its kind, requiring Russia's forces to choose between reinforcing their positions around Kharkiv and Izium or simply relinquishing those positions within artillery range. The ISW further reported that Ukrainian forces made no "confirmed" advances in the past day, but did repel assorted Russian attempts at recovering lost ground.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian advances were few, continued the ISW. As for Ukraine's counteroffensive, the hope is that the erstwhile defenders can build on it, driving back Russian assaults "along the Izyum axis" and retaking ground in the Kharkiv province.
The Times reiterates that the distressing circumstances of a whack-a-mole situation persist; as soon as one side captures a town or village, the other side is likely to retake it the next day, only for positions to reverse the day after that. There is just too much territory — the front is 300 miles wide — for either side, for now, to seize and retain.
Even if merely temporary gains are made in Ukraine's counteroffensive, its timing is acutely strategic. It's designed to deny Russia any major gains that could otherwise be announced by President Putin at Monday's Victory Day celebration in Moscow. Hence Russia's now-concentrated push in the south, near the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. To accomplish its objective, Russia will need to push south from Kharkiv and Izium, which explains Ukraine's offensive in those regions.
The governor of the Luhansk province said today that the next three to four days will determine the outcome of Russia's southerly offensive, intended to encircle Ukrainian forces.
The question still hangs as to whether Putin will declare at the celebration a full mobilization — a declaration that in itself would contradict any cause to celebrate. His anticipated swift victory has been a catastrophic bust.
The Meduza Project, a Latvia-based source of Russian news, reports that the Russian Federation has never before declared such a mobilization. The Kremlin insists it won't now, but that's the chronically mendacious Kremlin speaking. Another option would be a "partial" mobilization, affecting only specified Russian territories.
Finally, the numbers below may be but part of Ukraine's disinformation warfare. Nevertheless they are probably close to the truth, as well as enjoyable to read, whatever the actual truth:
These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of May 6, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/qoJwOnTDrf
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 6, 2022