Released today, this University of New Hampshire poll on Biden, Trump and DeSantis, which finds that ...
"Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now statistically tied with Former President[?] Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican Primary. Support for DeSantis has more than doubled since October. DeSantis runs better against Biden than does Trump, a further sign of Trump’s weakening support among NH Republicans. Biden and Trump are increasingly unpopular in New Hampshire" — though Biden won the state by 8 points in 2020 — "and only about half of members of each of their own parties want them to run for President in 2024."
DeSantis' tie with Biden is particularly worrisome since Trump's support indeed appears to be weakening. Look at the spread between the Florida governor and the sitting president among those who either voted for another candidate or failed to to vote in 2020. It's huge — 31 points, in DeSantis' favor.
Partisan voters are certain to remain partisan voters. Thus voters outside the parties and undecided voters will be key in a marginal contest, which 2024 will be. Hence these are the voters that might very well decide the state's presidential election outcome, as well as in other states.
One other chart of interest is this one:
Well, I tried to insert the chart here but photo insertion is malfunctioning. This doesn't seem to be my week for technology. Anyway, the chart shows Trump's "first-choice" support among likely GOP primary voters having declined from 47%, to 43%, to 37%, from July 2021 to the present.
Trump's advisers, political consultants, Republican strategists, state and county GOP committee chairs, Jared, Ivanka, conservative 9-year-olds on the street and Trump's auto mechanic have for 17 months intelligently told him to cool it with the "stolen election" bit. Trump, being Trump, has ignored them. And the above, creeping diminution of his first-choice support tells the story of his intransigent imbecility. That Pence has jumped 5 points is but further evidence that the ignoramus Trump is only screwing himself.
About this I am deeply sorry. Trump as nominee would be of far greater benefit to the Democratic nominee than Ron DeSantis.