The American public is being mislead about developments in the Russia-Ukraine war by two U.S. think tanks — one, independent; the other, federally funded — much as the public was misled about the factual circumstances of the Vietnam War (though in a completely different context), ultimately and famously exposed by the Rand Corp.'s Daniel Ellsberg via the Pentagon Papers.
The current facts on Ukrainian ground are, for the defender, dismal. Russian forces are tightening their grip on the strategic cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Luhansk province, the Donbas. Russia has nearly surrounded thousands of Ukrainian troops there, potentially stranding them. The at-risk defenders still control a small opening to the west, although entry and exit roads are
frequently shelled by Russia and, reports The NY Times, "Russian troops have been creeping forward to close the gap."
Mykolaiv, a major port city and transportation hub still in Ukrainian hands, suffered missile strikes over the weekend, and, more ominously, the northeastern city of Kharkiv, which recently appeared to be back in Ukrainian control, is again sustaining a Russian rocket offensive. Ukraine's interior minister, Vadym Denysenko, warned yesterday that "Russia is trying to make Kharkiv a frontline city," and he characterized the region's situation as "difficult."
Enter the two think tanks, the Institute for the Study of War and the Center for Naval Analysis.
Funded by U.S. defense contractors, the ISW has consistently reported positive developments on the Ukrainian side at the expense of objective analyses, which are essential in war settings. The ISW's latest report — and this is just one example of the Institute's manipulation of public opinion — framed Ukraine's dire situation in Severodonetsk as one of Russian weakness: "Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk."
The ISW previously disputed other military analysts' criticism of Ukraine's refusal to reinforce its fighting units in Severodonetsk; shrewdly, argued the ISW, Ukraine instead reinforced its southern units to draw Russian forces away from the city. That strategy, quite obviously, was less than shrewd. Conversely, the CNA, a federally funded think tank for all U.S. military services, argued that Ukraine chose "to fight for [Severodonetsk] in an effort to exhaust Russian forces."
Neither has that worked out for Ukraine. Each day it is losing up to 700 men — nearly all the casualties are occurring in the Luhansk province — and the strategic city of Severodonetsk is about to fall. But not to worry, effectively said Michael Kofman, CNA's director of Russia studies, on another Russia-watch site, 3 June: "The overall trends in the military balance still favor Ukraine."
Both analyses, those of the ISW and CNA, are inexcusable deceits. Ukraine's "favorable" military balance would be a splendid reality had the West supplied Ukraine properly and expeditiously from the beginning. By now, Russia would be on its heels and huddled close to its own border. No such needed assistance took place, however. So it's Ukraine on its heels. Yet the ISW and CNA say otherwise — as strategic cities fall, as troop losses mount, as civilian deaths continue to rise, and as Western aid, wanting in appropriate firepower, trickles in.
By these two think tanks, the American public is being deceived. Honest, objective analyses would likely be of greater benefit to Ukraine than those of habitually upbeat takes on its ground and air situations. Perhaps the public would then demand that Ukraine's essential military aid be increased, sufficient, and timely. Maybe not, though in either case, more straight-talking candor is called for.