Speculation about President Putin's earthly destiny is as variable as Moscow's seasons. And there are subsets of opinion within the subsets. Some Western Russia watchers see Vladimir being visited by unhappy dissenters, inside his inner circle, ordering his retirement. Others see a bloody end to his reign. Among the Russian elite, some billionaires are severely displeased by sanctions, while others see the sufferance of sanctions as patriotic duty. Among the population, most are pro-war, yet some are antiwar; swelling lists of dead Russian soldiers may enlarge the latter.
As a historian, I tend to agree that history is hovering over Vladimir Putin. As the Daily Beast observes, "Vladimir Lenin died. Nikita Khrushchev was ousted. Leonid Brezhnev died. Mikhail Gorbachev was booted in a surprise ouster. The list goes on." This is not to say that history is preordained in a kind of Marxist way. National cultures, however, do have a way of strongly suggesting personal outcomes.
Perhaps adding to Putin's unease and anxiety is that some Russia watchers already see the Russia-Ukraine war as a long one. Although four months is not long — not for a war — it's considerably longer than what Putin & Co. anticipated. That, plus the Russian army has shown itself to be incompetent, undertrained, and rather primitive. Both phenomena have contributed to Russia's humiliation. Thus, writes the Beast, "rumors have bubbled up that Putin’s closest cronies are plotting his ouster." But how valid are those rumors?
Ronald Marks, a former CIA officer, believes that Putin is "OK as long as the siloviki [strongmen] are on his side. And he’s done a nice job of getting rid of those who aren't on his side." Daniel Hoffman, also a former CIA officer, differs with Marks. There could be silent dissent among the siloviki — until it's not. "These guys that are going to do it are going to be so secret about it so that Putin doesn’t find them and kill them first," says Hoffman. "It’ll happen all of a sudden. And he’ll be dead."
Russia's oligarchs and former billionaires — former because of the sanctions — are, on the other hand, almost entirely resigned to accepting the degraded status quo, and Putin's leadership of it. In a NY Times article, "From Russian Elites, No Sign of Broad Challenge to Putin," there reigns a consensus: powerlessness. "It's not going to work," says Aleksandr Lebedev, a former KGB agent and once a billionaire. "What, am I supposed to now go to the Kremlin with a banner?" Lebedev adds that Russia is morphing into "Iran and North Korea," and it's "an absolute illusion" that Russia's super-affluent can influence Putin's inner circle.
Yevgenia Albats, an indescribably courageous journalist still working in Moscow as the New York Times magazine's chief editor, best summarizes the mood and deflated expectations of Russia's elites: "They are drinking. They are drinking very heavily."
Though hopelessness appears rampant among Russia's onetime movers and shakers, history still haunts — or rather, history should be haunting Vladimir Putin. Will he join the list? "Vladimir Lenin died. Nikita Khrushchev was ousted. Leonid Brezhnev died. Mikhail Gorbachev was booted in a surprise ouster." Here's to hoping Daniel Hoffman is correct. "It’ll happen all of a sudden. And he’ll be dead."