I expected no surprises from the latest NYTimes/Siena poll (A+), and I was not disappointed. No matter how many investigations are launched into Trump's criminal activities and no matter how many state and federal indictments seem imminent, his supporters just don't care.
This one among many of the Siena poll's findings is downright frightening. Among registered voters, 44% still view Trump favorably, a figure eerily close to his 46% "victory" in 2016. That polling result came after the spectacular blowup over his illegal retention of highly classified documents.
And there's this:
Stunningly, 14% of registered voters said they plan on supporting Trump in 2024 even though they agreed that his post-2020 plotting to steal the election was, well, a threat to democracy.
How does he manage to sustain so much backing? A major reason is immigration. A full 50% of respondents still want a wall on the southern border (including some Biden supporters) and a majority side with the Republican Party in general on the issue of illegal immigration. This is a huge warning sign to Democrats.
One segment of the Times piece notes that "Biden’s margin of victory in the 2020 election was 4.4 percentage points." That is untrue. His margin of victory lay in merely 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Just 15,000 votes in each state gone the other direction and Trump would be president today. Next time?
The most frightful worry, though, is that the Fed could throw the economy into recession, lingering into 2024. I've no doubt that's why President Biden said in his recent "60 Minutes" interview that he had not yet decided to run. He's waiting to see how much blood is in the economy's waters. If a lot, any Democratic nominee would face stiff winds.