Politico: "Donald Trump’s lackluster campaign announcement was one thing. His real problem is fast becoming the collective shrug Republicans have given him in the week-plus since."
The shrug is as quantifiable as it is unqualified. Said Bob Vander Plaats, the profoundly influential evangelical preacher in Iowa, "The people talking about [Trump’s announcement] in my circles, it’s almost like it didn’t happen. That, to me, is what is telling, where people believe we probably need to move forward, not look in the rear view mirror."
Trump's hope was that by announcing early he would intimidate potential competitors. That hope was immediately met by a super PAC ad — running in Iowa — for Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Trump’s announcement was also met by a host of challengers appearing at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference, including Mike Pompeo, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Chris Sununu and DeSantis.
"It’s shocking, in the sense that I think he felt that he could scare everybody out of the field and become the presumptive nominee, and it just didn’t work,” said Saul Anuzis, the former chair of Michigan's Republican Party. "The excitement’s just not there."
The sentiment is reinforced by the quantifiable. Although Trump is still referenced by the press as the party's frontrunner, the numbers are telling a different story.
Nationally, a 15 November Morning Consult poll did show that Trump was leading DeSantis by 14 points (47-33) among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Yet those figures also reveal tremendous erosion in Trump's support over the past year.
On a state-by-state basis, the news is even worse for Trump. A recent poll by Club for Growth — once a powerful Trump ally, the organization has turned on him — found DeSantis leading Trump by double digits in Iowa (11 points) and New Hampshire (15 points). In Florida, DeSantis led by 26 points. Even a biased, privately commissioned poll would be unlikely to skew the numbers this far.
Trump's early-announcement strategy was fatally flawed from the start. Again, he had hoped to narrow the field by swinging his cajones early. And yet the larger the field the much better for Trump, which, it seems, he overlooked. The fracturing of the 2016 primary vote was what elevated him, and his only slim hope in 2024 is a repeat of the fracturing. By now, however, it most likely won't be enough.
Take, for instance, this poll of likely primary voters in Texas. They were asked, "If the upcoming 2024 Republican Primary for president were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence, for whom would you vote?" An astounding plurality of 43% said they would vote for DeSantis; for Trump, 32%. The significance of this poll is that even in a crowded — that is, fractured — field, DeSantis topped Trump.
In fact the Florida governor is racking up so much early support — which can be a negative; it invites loads of media scrutiny — my guess is that the Haleys and Pompeos will remain in the race, but they'll be running only as vice-presidential carrots for the now-presumptive nominee, Ron DeSantis.
My one question is: When will the press stop calling Trump the frontrunner? One or two polls showing him ahead of DeSantis nationally mean virtually nothing, for they also show him slipping badly. And polls in key primary states show him doing terribly. Trump lost this race before he announced.