While speaking yesterday to the Kremlin's cynically named Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights, Vladimir Putin implicitly conceded his blitzkrieg failures of 2022 by announcing that the war in Ukraine might instead "be a long process."
His public acknowledgment of a bloody slog was likely compelled by Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian soil, which brought the foreign war frighteningly close to the people. In addition to Putin's "partial mobilization" — an exercise in mass chaos which also frightened thousands of Russian men into fleeing the country — Ukraine's drone attacks have shaken the once-largely indifferent fatherland.
Putin hastened to add that "in these conditions, the talk about some additional mobilization efforts makes no sense. There is no need for this, for the state and for the defense ministry.” There is however a need for the proper training and equipping of the unfortunate 300,000 already conscripted, many of whom have said they lack commanders and have had to buy their own supplies and uniforms.
Word of such administrative fecklessness tends to get out to a then-rattled public. Even less helpful to national confidence are Ukraine's probably enhanced, "Soviet-era-made, unmanned aerial vehicles" exploding on Russian territory. The country "prides itself on being ready for a NATO strike ... by having a lot of aerial assets," said the Virginia-based military analyst Samuel Bendett to The Washington Post. "So if that's the case, then how did this happen?" he asked on behalf of the Russian people.
More comprehensive was Abbas Gallyamov, a political scientist and estranged Putin speechwriter. Beyond mobilization's inefficiencies and Ukrainian strikes, "the people are getting tired," he said to The NY Times. "And Putin knows that a protracted war cannot be popular." But by denying the coming of "a second wave of mobilization," said Gallyamov, he "is trying to show that he has enough men to last through the winter," whose slower fighting should also bring fewer casualties. And ultimately, a war of attrition will favor Russia — or so goes the theory.
In a 29 November interview with The Odessa Journal, Mr. Gallyamov speculated that Putin originally anticipated the absence of war – but he militarily hijacked himself through a geopolitical game of unrelenting escalation. "By issuing an ultimatum and starting saber-rattling at the borders," said Gallyamov, "he was sure that Zelensky would break down and at least partially accept his ultimatum, and Putin would look like a kind of a winner of NATO. But Putin suddenly found himself in the situation of a hooligan who terrorizes everyone, [but] if you turn around and leave, you will not be respected by your own people."
In the Odessa interview, Gallyamov also expressed the risky opinion that "the longer Putin sits [in power], the better." The dictator's former speechwriter was pondering what it will take to build a stable Russian democracy. And to his way of thinking, it will take popular exhaustion. "If he is quickly overthrown, Putin’s supporters can say that he turned out to be weak and another strong leader is needed."
To strike down and exterminate Putin's authoritarianism, said Gallyamov, "make sure that all the talk about a strong leader, enemies around, and a course built on confrontation with the outside world is all a dead end in itself." Domestically, the people's mounting hardships will help, too. "Of course, it is blasphemous to say this because people are dying," said Gallyamov, "but war is also good in the long run. She showed all these militarists that everything is a lie."
For now, though everything Putinesque is indeed a lie, the Russian strongman can still bolster Potemkin's walls. Because he owns the media, he can bamboozle the Russian people with propagandistic gibberish about the war's benefits. Yesterday, for example, he said one "significant result" of slaughtering innocent Ukrainians and destroying the neighboring country's economy is that Russia is now larger via annexed Ukrainian lands. He omitted their cost of 100,000 Russian casualties as well as the straightforward fact of Ukraine's valiant reclamations.
What else does Vladimir Putin want the Russian people to take pride in? Perhaps acts such as this, from a Times report: "A Russian artillery barrage killed six civilians on Wednesday and wounded five others in the eastern town of Kurakhove, Ukrainian authorities said, further stoking outrage in the country over Moscow’s invasion." Said the region's military governor, "The Russian occupiers struck the center. A market, a bus station, gas stations, and residential buildings came under fire. Another crime of the Russians on our land."
Just something else that Putin neglected to mention at his meeting of the Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights.