With his recent conscription of 300,000 men — and more to come, say Western analysts — Vladimir Putin is taking the Chinese Korean War strategy to Ukraine: Flood the battlefield with attacking troops.
"Firepower has been crucial in Russia’s gains in the war, but Ukrainian fighters and analysts say that Moscow has relied increasingly on a more crude tactic as its forces try to take the eastern city of Bakhmut: the sheer weight of troop numbers," reports The NY Times.
"Part of Russia’s evolving strategy, Ukrainian officials said, appears to be to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses with waves of soldiers." It's an effective strategy, assuming a wartime leader gives not one damn about the lives of his soldiers. And Putin does not.
Ukrainian soldiers are taking a beating on the battlefield around Bakhmut. These troops are better trained and experienced, but they acknowledge that "at times [they are] overwhelmed by the numbers ranged against them."
Those whom Russia is sacrificing are largely part of the Wagner Group, recently recruited from prisons. Says Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at a Virginia-based research institute, "Ukraine’s been forced to essentially trade higher quality troops to hold Bakhmut against expendable Russian forces."
He adds that the losses could "impede Ukrainian plans for an offensive down the line," since Ukraine simply cannot keep up in the manpower chase.
The Times attempts the most hopeful face it can muster: "In the coming weeks and months, Ukraine will be strengthened by defensive and offensive weapons, including tanks and rocket systems supplied by the United States and other allies."
But given the "months" factor, the Times is also forced to recognize that "for now the extra Russian troops give Moscow an advantage."
Not for want of a horse, but that of a few, carelessly idle Western months, Ukraine's once-accumulating advantages could be lost.