The latest results from the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies (B+), yet to be publicly released, show DeSantis leading Trump in an Iowa head-to-head matchup, 45%-37%.
In honor of the 1968 Harvard Crimson headline — "Harvard Beats Yale, 29-29" — DeSantis is even with Trump in New Hampshire, 39%-39%.
The significance of the poll, whose 21-23 March findings were published by Axios, is rather obvious: National polls conducted in roughly the same period still misleadingly show Trump leading the Florida governor by significant percentages, such as Reuters/Ipsos, 44-30; Monmouth, 44-36; and Harvard-Harris, 50-24.
Again, DeSantis's most looming threat and Trump's greatest advantage is a contest outside just the two of them. Once declared candidates Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy are thrown into the mix, DeSantis slips to a tie with Trump in Iowa, and he loses to Trump in New Hampshire by double digits.
Axios notes that in the favorability/unfavorability category, DeSantis unsurprisingly does better than Trump. In Iowa, the governor's rating is 81%-11%; Trump's is 74%-24%, and in New Hampshire, the governor rates 77%-15% favorable/unfavorable; Trump, 69%-29%.
These numbers square with Public Opinion's comparison polling of the two men's temperament, in which Trump — the all-time heaviest favorite to be a total jackass — is the clear loser. In Iowa, 68% of Republicans see DeSantis as having the better temperament; in New Hampshire, 71%.
Axios adds this baffling note: "There was one warning sign for DeSantis in the polling: Many Republican voters didn't see him as the 'best candidate to defeat Joe Biden'.... In New Hampshire, only 48% viewed DeSantis as the better candidate to defeat Biden, while 46% thought Trump was more electable. In Iowa, 54% viewed DeSantis as more electable, compared to 44% for Trump."
In sum, 1) national polls are meaningless, only state-by-state polls matter; 2) Trump's boasts of being far ahead are baloney; 3) DeSantis has to pray that his early state-by-state frontrunner status doesn't doom him, Scott Walker-style; 4) a candidate field populated by >2 is a lethal horror for DeSantis; 5) the governor must hope that minor candidates bail from the race immediately after Iowa (assuming their funding takes them even that far); 6) Trump is vulnerable in the temperament column, from which even codfish DeSantis can profit; and 7), looking into spring, and somewhat playing off #6, DeSantis would be well advised to pound Trump on his personality disorders, insisting that they have entangled him in an unelectable, legal nightmare.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that the Republican presidential primary fight is going to be one helluva lot of fun.