The Battle of Bakhmut is reaching critical mass. In this bombed-out city hinges a singular Russian victory of virtually no strategic value, while Ukraine is expending enormous resources in defending a "symbolic" point on the map. Whichever side is left standing may make little difference in the larger battle for the Donbas, but an extraordinary difference in the entirety of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the paramilitary Wagner Group, which has done most of Russia's fighting in Bakhmut, conceded in the past week that the situation is "very difficult." Yet his troops, composed of former convicts and experienced mercenaries, have succeeded in seizing Bakhmut's eastern half.
This, Ukraine denied, but British intelligence agreed with the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War that the Wagner Group had "made gains" in Bakhmut, that it had "taken control" of the city's east.
Most perilous for Ukraine's forces is that their encirclement by Russian troops is a real possibility, as you can see from the satellite image. (Credit: Maxar Technologies, based on data from the ISW and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, March 8.) And the latest reports are that the route is under heavy Russian shelling.
The surrender — or worse — of thousands of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut could do serious injury to its planned spring offensive in the south, far away from Bakhmut. However Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine's commander of all ground forces, insisted over the weekend that Bakhmut's defense was "key to those efforts," as The NY Times paraphrased him.
Or, as the colonel general put it, "It is necessary to gain time to accumulate reserves and start the spring counteroffensive." How the potential loss of so many Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, in addition to the losses being incurred, could aid in "accumulating reserves" is an enduring mystery.
"Gradual Russian advances and a high number of Ukrainian casualties have fueled talk of a retreat from Bakhmut," as the Times continues to report. Yet President Zelensky has said reinforcements are being sent into the bloody maw.
"Ukrainian officials say that Russian losses in Bakhmut are worse than their own, and they have signaled that they will pursue a strategy of bleeding the Russian Army before a planned Ukrainian counterattack." The question remains: which side will be left more bloodied? Plus, Russia has 150,000 men in reserve. How many does Ukraine have?
Nearly as dangerous for Ukraine is this: "Kyiv’s forces are tearing through ammunition supplies — firing shells and rockets far faster than Western nations can supply them."
The Battle of Bakhmut will soon prove itself either brilliant military strategy on Ukraine's part, or Ukraine's one real blunder of the war.