By mid to late summer, as many as a dozen Republican presidential candidates will be chasing the nomination crown; each one of them a declared alternative to Trump, and each one of them the destruction of alternatives to Trump. The party establishment — what's left of it — claims to be aghast at another top-of-the-ticket go-around with the Donald, but it's powerless to narrow the field, which could ensure a Trump renomination.
If only the days of party bosses and pragmatic machines were still with us. For example in 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt incorrigibly decided he wanted his old job back, the ironfisted establishment went to work on behalf of William Howard Taft. It squeezed Teddy out, relegating him to third-party status. Of course T.R. blew up the party's general election chances — Woodrow Wilson squeaked by with about 42% of the vote — but in the nomination game, the party would not be denied its rightful, kingmaking place.
Today, it's anarchy. No one is beholden to parties because the parties are dispensable. With the right small-dollar operation, a handful of big-money pals and a touch of photogenesis, every man and woman is his or her own king- or queenmaker. So even establishment participants can and do say to hell with the establishment. And that is the gift the anti-Trump establishment is feebly, insipidly, paradoxically giving to Trump.
It was not meant to be. "The conventional wisdom at the beginning of the year was that the field would be relatively small.... Republican anti-Trump donors were working to thin the herd to prevent a repeat of the divided field that guaranteed Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016," writes the Times. But major donors have their favorites and kept pets, and so the field has widened, possibly up to 10 or 12 contenders. And Trump is loving it.
He has other advantages aside from the sheer number of candidates. The not-Trumps turn ghostly pale and go paralytically mute at the mere thought of criticizing the is-Trump by name. The criticisms they do cast are veiled beyond effortless recognition. What's more, the not-DeSantises are carving up the potential DeSantis vote as well, thus weakening the one guy with a realistic chance at being Trump.
Michelle Cottle notes that "so far, the pack of pretenders to Donald Trump’s throne reeks of weakness." Their behavior has been somewhat "passive-aggressive," she continues, and "the result is a collection of challengers trying to sell beta-male energy to a voting base hooked on outrage, machismo and blood lust." It may be that attacking Trump is a sure way to lose, but licking his golf shoes is an even surer path to undignified defeat.
Although the DeSantis camp intends to forsake obsequiousness (we think), it has also taken up the hustling of downright hallucinatory tales. "We don’t believe it’s 2016 again," said senior adviser Ryan Tyson, who went on to parse the field: "35 percent as 'only Trump' voters, 20 percent as 'never Trump' and the remaining 45 percent as the DeSantis sweet spot."
That, regrettably for DeSantis and Tyson, is not how the respondents to a May 24th Fox News poll (A) saw it. They had Trump beating the Florida governor 53-20 in a crowded field. Worse yet is Iowa, where a May 25th Emerson poll (A-) had Trump over DeSantis, 62-20.
Among the rest of the already swollen field — you know their names; most, anyway — only Asa Hutchinson and the two Chrises, Christie and Sununu, have shown an inclination to take on Trump. Hutchinson has said he "has led us astray" and "undermined the fabric of our democracy." Christie has deliriously said "I don’t believe that Republican voters penalize people who criticize Trump."
Only Sununu made a rather pragmatic observation: "Everyone says, 'We have to keep people from getting in.' That’s the wrong message.... The discipline is getting out."
Sununu is wrong on the front end, if by getting out he means after Iowa and New Hampshire (where DeSantis once led). It could be over by then. But he's correct on the backend, assuming he means departing well before the two early primary states. Yet even that seems unlikely, since each candidate has his or her own angel, allowing them to remain in the race well after their inevitable expiration date.
Oh for the days of party bosses, efficient machines, smoke-hazed backrooms and the flow of bourbon. The election year of 2024 would be 1912 all over again, with DeSantis as Taft, Trump as third-party Roosevelt, and Biden as the victorious Wilson.