This segment by Jonathan Last (The Bulwark) nicely summarizes how I see the Republican primaries playing out. So nicely, I can simply reprint what Last writes.
Right now the primary is a logjam: Donald Trump has an overwhelming advantage. Ron DeSantis is viable, but only barely. And everyone else—everyone who could even plausibly described as #TeamNormal—is stuck in a scrum under 5 percent.
But a federal indictment is coming for Trump. This won’t be a New York City politics production. And it isn’t about sexual assault. It’s a real-deal crime against the state.
Complete with a tape of Trump holding a smoking gun and explaining to listeners what it is and whom he just shot with it.
Jail time—real, orange jumpsuit stuff—suddenly becomes possible.
And maybe Republican voters panic.
It doesn’t have to be all of them. It just has to be enough to register decline in the polls. Enough to get Trump under 50 percent. Because once he starts bleeding support, that becomes its own story. It could plausibly spook other marginal Trump supporters who are worried about electability. Before you know it, the combination of news about the criminal trial and news about Trump’s backwards momentum becomes a flywheel....
Suddenly what you have is room for an alternative.
Where I differ from Last — which is obvious in my intro — is his final assessment: "I don’t think this scenario is likely. Rather, it’s highly unlikely." I'd say it's reasonably likely.
My reason for this belief is that many — the always amorphous many — Republican voters are this time around abnormally keyed up about the "electability" thing. And if Trump has up to four criminal indictments hanging over his head during primary season, many Republican voters will ultimately say "We still love you Donald, but there ain't a chance in hell that a man looking at prison can win the United States presidency."
I know. That's sober, logical thinking on my part, and I'm speaking about an immensely besotted, illogical bloc of voters. But the very real potential of a legally besieged, conspicuously criminal nominee just might persuade enough Republicans to think straight for a change.