In an hourlong interview with The Wall Street Journal's editor in chief, Emma Tucker, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his nation will commence its long-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian invaders as soon as the ground is a bit drier. In short, the counteroffensive is imminent.
"I don’t know how long it will take," he said, and "it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready." Indeed, his forces have already taken preliminary steps in the south, such as increased long-range missile and drone strikes on Russian supply lines along its "land bridge" stretching from Mariupol to Kherson.
Embedded in his thoughts on how the prolonged counteroffensive "can go a variety of ways," two of them are especially troubling to Zelensky: in the much longer run, the potential of a Donald Trump presidential victory, and immediately, a tragic shortage of Western-made weapons.
Trump has consistently refused to express unqualified support for Ukraine, saying only that he would somehow swiftly clinch a peace deal between the invader and the invaded. That this is simply naked Trumpian bluster is self-evident; there is no realistic chance of such a deal, both sides are dug in. Ukraine, of course, has the vastly superior — and singularly legitimate — claim: it wants its land back. But Russian President Vladimir Putin will never willingly cede one square inch.
The Journal writes that "Zelensky said he couldn’t understand Trump's claim he could end the war in 24 hours." We do not know the Ukrainian president's exact words, but the Journal's paraphrase is classic understatement. Trump claim is utterly unintelligible because Trump is a bootless windbag; he'll say anything that sounds good to an electoral base as ignorant as he. Demagoguery relies on prodigious gullibility, and among Trumpers, it comes in spades.
"In a situation like this," said Zelensky, "when there is support [as there is now, from President Joe Biden], you are afraid of changes." And by "afraid" he meant ghostly pale and a state of terror. "When you mention a change of administration ... you want changes for the better, but it can also be the other way around." As in 180 degrees, with Trump backing his authoritarian friend Putin. A reminder: the former president has called Russia's invasion "genius" and "pretty savvy."
A Trump administration redux would mean Ukrainians' slavery under the iron thumb of a tyrannical despot. Thousands would be rounded up, interrogated, tortured, executed. The NATO alliance supporting Ukraine would fracture, and possibly collapse altogether. A free, democratic nation would vanish from the face of the earth, all because of a Trumpian whim and the returned president's adoration of "strongmen." The U.S.'s global reputation would be irrevocably soiled.
Other than the longer-term distress of a second Trump administration, Zelensky is most vexed by his shortage of advanced, Western-made weapons, particularly in two areas: air coverage and air defense. Zelensky conceded to the Journal that Russia has air superiority, which will play out disastrously on the front lines. "A large number of [Ukrainian] soldiers sill die" in the counteroffensive, he said, because of his forces' inability to take on Russian power in the skies.
The human cost of the West's delay, which is to say, the U.S.'s delay, in providing Ukraine with fighter jets — F-16s — is about to become horribly calculable. The European transfer of these planes is now in the works, but far too late for Ukraine's counteroffensive. Zelensky was philosophical: "We would like to have certain things, but we can’t wait for months," he said. More's the pity.
He also stressed the need for more Patriot missile batteries, the air defense system that the Journal describes as "consist[ing] of several launchers, a powerful radar, a control station and other support equipment—to protect [Ukraine's] cities and front-line troops" from Russian missiles. Zelensky specified a need of 50 such batteries; presently, Ukraine has two.
An extraordinarly disconcerting irony — or internal contradiction — hovers perilously over Ukraine's looming counteroffensive. If it fails, if Ukrainian forces are unable to score major successes in the regaining of lands, we will almost certainly hear a cacophony of Western voices demanding a negotiated peace. If such a peace were to materialize, it would signify only a major Russian success. The deal would mean Ukrainian lands lost, and a peace that's impermanent. Putin would be back once his armed forces had remanned and resupplied. He has been clear as to his intention to have all of Ukraine.
Yet a failed counteroffensive would come about only because the West has so consistently starved Ukraine of the modern weaponry it needs to succeed. Zelensky's forces have proven time and again that they can beat the delights out of Russia's. But to triumph wholesale has always required more than the "drip-feeding" (the Journal's words, on Zelensky's behalf) of advanced armaments from the West. Hence the self-contradiction. To have deprived Ukraine of what was military necessary and then say "Well, you failed, so it's time to negotiate," would be dishonorable and incoherent.
Should Ukraine's counteroffensive miscarry or come up unacceptably short, Zelensky correctly noted that "that animal, that beast will develop a taste" for more of his sovereign land. And from there, one might further note, his neighbors' lands.
We're only about one-quarter into the 21st century, but it's damn near impossible to imagine a greater future test of free world's will to defeat an authoritarian aggressor. Thus Ukraine's counteroffensive may be said to be the Battle of the Century. Godspeed.