It seems that President Zelensky has exploited the symbolism of D-Day, 6 June. Just one day prior, American and Russian officials are reporting "a flurry of offensive military activity that by Monday was raging along multiple sectors of the front line." (NYT)
Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun.
American officials are reserved, saying only that the surge is a "possible indication" of a Ukrainian offensive and adding that it might begin with mere "feints or diversions." Russia's defense ministry would disagree. Today it announced that Ukraine had launched a major operation at five locations along the eastern front, the Donetsk region, but had repelled the assaults.
And with that, Russian military bloggers would disagree. They're writing that Ukraine has advanced in some areas, and this morning "an even stronger attack had begun."
And a war-reporting Russian Telegram channel is saying that Ukrainian forces "had breached a first line of Russian defenses near Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk, and reclaimed two villages as Russian forces fell back to reserve positions." There are also reports of Ukrainian forces pushing through Russian defenses in the east-central Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine will also attempt to cleave Russia's "land bridge" that runs from Crimea to southwestern Russia.
The Times assesses the transcendent importance of Ukraine's offensive:
"Success could help support Kyiv’s push for longer term commitments for additional military aid and security guarantees from the West. It could also strengthen the hand of President Volodymyr Zelensky in any peace talks with Russia.
"Failure, or a lack of dramatic quick progress, could complicate Ukraine’s ability to get further assistance from the west and make Kyiv’s push this summer for additional security guarantees at the NATO summit this summer more difficult."
On Saturday I wrote that "We're only about one-quarter into the 21st century, but it's damn near impossible to imagine a greater future test of free world's will to defeat an authoritarian aggressor." Hence, if Ukraine fails to achieve dramatic progress, that would be all the more reason for NATO nations to double down in their support of Zelensky's government — not abandon it.
Would the Allies have ceased their efforts to liberate Europe, had D-Day failed?