I'm at a loss as to why data-junkie Nate Silver says the presumption is already creeping in. It has been presumed since 3 November 2020. I'm also bewildered as to why he finds probable reality "tedious." But, to each his own pet peeves.
"Read media coverage of the presidential race, and a certain amount of tedious inevitability is already creeping in," writes Silver. "It’s just presumed that Joe Biden will once again face off against Donald Trump, making for the first presidential rematch since Eisenhower-Stevenson in 1956....
"By contrast, if you look at prediction markets, they take a much more cautious view. For instance, as of when I’m writing this on Monday morning, ElectionBettingOdds.com, which compiles odds from several prediction markets, reports that both Biden and Trump have only about a 65 percent chance of winning their respective nominations:"
I should note that I, at least, have not presumed a Biden-Trump race. For months I have speculated not unseriously that the political peril of Trump's indictments, once they really get rolling in four separate courts, state and federal, may start to catch up to Republican primary voters. I initially cast the odds of this development at 50-50, although I confess those odds are looking more precarious by the day. Nevertheless, I still believe Trump might well encounter some primary troubles as his legal woes rumble on.
As for Silver's exercised disgruntlement with what he calls the presumption's "tedious inevitability," I would counter with So what? or Who cares? Only the right-hand column is imbued with real vexation: the virtual tie between Biden and Trump, a statistical fact agreed upon by both betting markets and opinion polls.
Such has been the tedious consistency of this presumed race, which, after Trump's godawful four years in the White House, topped by an overt attempt to steal the 2020 election, few of us expected. I'd venture that what we did expect was a Trump ceiling of around 45%, not the 50% or 51% we have so often witnessed in public polls.