These harrowing statistics were complied by a Fox News poll conducted 9-12 Sept. by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), both rated "A" by FiveThirtyEight. The numbers for President Biden are appalling. They're also unfair, wrongheaded and symptomatic of a remarkably ignorant electorate. But that doesn't negate their raging potency. Based on this top-rated poll, it's almost certain that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be returned to the White House.
The first graph points to the most shocking developments. Biden's support among suburban women is down 12 points; among all women it's down 11 points; among Black voters, down 10; down 7 among voters under age 45; and down 5 points among Hispanics. Trump has picked up Biden's losses. He has gained 13 points among suburban women; 10 points among all women; 7 points among Blacks; 7 among Hispanics; and 6 points among those under age 45.
Independents, the electorate's largest voting bloc, choose Trump over Biden by 10 points. Ten months ago, they favored Biden by 20.
Overall, Trump leads Biden by 2 points, as does Nikki Haley. Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pence lead Biden by 1 point. Ron DeSantis trails Biden by 3 points; Tim Scott and Chris Christie trail by 1.
I'm a sentimental fellow when it comes to small children and baby ducks. I am perhaps the least sentimental fellow when it comes to choosing a presidential nominee. I have one unconditional, rock-solid requirement: he or she must be able to win. Ideology, policies, personal history, photogenics — they all take a backseat to electability, since none of them means a damn thing if the nominee can't win.
It might be unfair and even diabolically ruthless to oppose Joe Biden's renomination, especially given his string of presidential policy successes. But it is not wrongheaded. It is simply, straightforwardly, unsentimentally obligatory — assuming, that is, the above statistics fail to improve dramatically over the next month or two. It's nearly impossible to imagine that they could get worse.
If the numbers remain unchanged, inevitable in one's imagination is that 2024 will be the absolute worst year in American history. And the inexorably horrifying reality of it will be even worse than that.
Reminder: Joe Biden's probable opponent, who currently leads in this race, is facing four indictments and 91 criminal counts.
For Biden — and us — it's that bad.