Let's just rip off the bandaid and get it over with; let us not bury the lede. A Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted Sept. 15-20, has Trump leading Biden by 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%.
Seldom do pollsters say of their own polling: Never mind, our findings are "probably an outlier." But that's what the Post-ABC folks are saying, notwithstanding that their polling operation is rated "A" by FiveThirtyEight; and in May, the same operation found Trump leading by 6 points. 49% to 43%. The Post writes that "Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls" — except its own in the spring?
Still, it's only one poll, we may dismiss or embrace it as we like. One additional factor in its defense, however, is its finding of "3 in 5 Democrats" preferring a presidential nominee other than Biden, which indeed comports with other surveys. (If an alternative to Biden were to step forward, we could know how seriously Democrats hold the preceding view. As it is — i.e., with no named competitor — there is "no consensus on who that should be.")
Another "figure on par with other recent polls" is the president's overall approval rating. It has that familiar ring of 37%. And only 30% approve of how he's handling the economy, in which inflation has been cut in half, in fact more than half, and the unemployment rate is less than 4%.
Keep in mind that pollsters asked how the economy is performing; they did not ask respondents how they see their own financial situation. Their answer: "roughly 3 in 4 Americans say the economy is not so good or poor." Fifty-seven percent say that about the excellent unemployment rate.
I asked my own question four days ago: "Is not contempt the proper attitude to hold about voters who are so willingly blind to economic reality that they believe President Biden deserves no credit for its smooth, positive workings?"
You want more out-of-touchness? Try this: "The poll also asked people whether, looking back, [they] approve or disapprove of the way Trump handled the job of being president. The result was 48 percent saying they approve ... [which] is 10 points better than when he left office." Ignorance mixed with severe memory loss is a frightening electoral combination.
Here's another brain-twister. Trump, as you know, is facing four indictments and 91 criminal counts. In other words, there's solid evidence of, shall we say, his wrongdoing. There is no such evidence regarding Biden and his impeachment proceedings. Nevertheless, while 53% of Americans say Trump is being held accountable, 58% say that of Biden. What's more, 40% say Trump is being "unfairly victimized," while fewer, 32%, say the same of Biden.
The finding that perhaps makes the Post-ABC pollsters most suspicious of their own poll stems from the likely prospect of a government shutdown next week. They asked respondents whom they would blame: 40% say Biden/Democrats and 33% say congressional Republicans. Notes the Post: "That finding is at odds with previous Post-ABC polls taken over many years at times when the government was partially shut down due to spending disputes."
The pollsters also gathered rather weird, seemingly out-of-balance statistics in the demographic-breakdown department; for example on gendered support for Trump or Biden (in this poll, way more "male" for Trump than usual); in age ranges (Trump leads significantly, and strangely, among the 18-35 group); and among nonWhite voters (Biden's share is questionably less).
The great fear among the rational demographic is, of course, that the Post-ABC poll is more of a camel's nose than an outlier. Is it especially, genuinely odd that Trump could hold a 10% lead over Biden when three-quarters of Americans — the vast number of whom are voters — are so grotesquely ill-informed they believe the economy is "not so good or poor"? There's nothing "outlying" about that statistic, hence one wonders about the others' authenticity.
In brief, is this poll merely the first of many to show Trump with an outside-the-margin-of-error lead? Even more briefly, are voters that nuts?