Marist College conducted its latest poll on Tuesday through Thursday of last week, the first week of Trump's last days, if the law's as keen as his criminality. Marist is among 538's more reputable pollsters, scoring 2.9 out of a maximum 3.0. Its summary states:
Trump’s support among white voters and independents has splintered. Biden is doing better than he did in 2020 among white voters, and he has eliminated the advantage that Trump had among independents earlier this month. Biden has a three-percentage point edge over Trump among registered voters nationally. In addition to independents, Trump has lost some ground among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. Among those
who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden holds a six-percentage point lead. Biden is up five-percentage points in a multi-candidate field.
In gauging the effect of Trump's criminal proceedings on the presidential race, all we have to work with is correlation. But it's a happy correlation that includes significant upswings for Biden, significant enough to at least suggest causation.
In breaking down the summary above, among those "who definitely plan to vote in November," Biden leads Trump, 53% to 47%. They're now tied among independents, yet Trump previously led by 7 points. As for voters who dislike both candidates, again it's a tie, Biden, 50-48. But, that represents a huge gain for Biden, for earlier Trump led among the double dislikers by 15 points, 54-39.
It appears Kennedy is doing more injury to Trump, so I retract any and all unflattering comments I once made about him. I think Bobby is just peachy. Again let's pass over registered voters for now and see where the two major candidates land among the likely when RFK Jr. is tossed in the mix: Biden, 46%; Trump, 39%. In short, where Kennedy gains, Trump slips. The former 's support among independents, for example, increased by 6 points, while Trump's dropped by 8 points.
Looking at all candidates and registered voters, Biden has 43%, Trump has 38%, Kennedy, 14%, West and Stein, 2% each. Biden's lead was only 2 points in early April. The single variable introduced between then and last week was Trump's trial. Correlation only?
Otherwise, most Americans are still unhappy with Biden. His job approval rating among that largest of groups is 43%, same as before. About his thriving economy, 54% disapprove — evidently they'd prefer high unemployment, lower wages and stagnant economic growth.
His tolerance of Israel's war on Palestinians is causing his greatest electoral drag: 57% disapprove of his actions, while barely a third (35%) approve. Biden should rethink his position not to recover votes, but to do what's right.
Meanwhile, Trump's having done everything wrong, much of which has him cooling his criminal heels in a NY court, is President Biden's wonderfully passive advantage.
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