More on RFK Jr., the "real" Trump

Polling evidence continues to show that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a wonderful guy. He's chewing into Trump's voter base with more chomp than he is Biden's.

In the latest nationwide Quinnipiac University poll (2.8 of 3.0 rating, 538) of registered voters, Biden and Trump were tied 46%-46%. A tie among RVs is a good sign. The race remained tied at 37-37 with RFK added, but when respondents were asked to choose between the major candidates, they went for Trump by 47%-29%. And that's a good direction, should some come to their senses and decide to not vote third party/independent. 

Axios notes "that dynamic is consistent with two other polls." One is a recent Marist survey (2.9 of 3.0), another an NBC News  poll (2.6, Hart Associates). With third party/independent candidates included, Biden led Trump 39%-37% in the NBC survey of registered voters. 

More significant was Marist's polling, which I looked at last Thursday. It was conducted during the first week of Trump's trial, and it polled likely voters as well. Wrote Marist: "Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden holds a six-percentage point lead. Biden is up five-percentage points in a multi-candidate field."

Axios adds that "it's not all good news for Biden," citing a Bloomberg survey that showed "Biden's only ahead in one of seven battleground states and that a small bump from last month has faded away."

I'll add two other observations. The poll was of registered voters only; more critically, 538 gives the pollster a poor 1.8 rating — that being Morning Consult, which I haven't trusted for years, beginning with a phone call to one of its pollsters about a conspicuously flawed poll. I can't recall the details, but our chat was less than reassuring. 

The (I've no idea how the comparative -er and superlative -est forms of this word made the cut by lexicographers, but they did) pleasantest part of Axios' reporting on Bobby and polls is this: "RFK himself is making direct appeals appeals to Trump supporters with promises to 'seal the border' from undocumented migrants." Hey get off my lawn, codger Trump is screaming. 

Moreover, RFK has begun talking about appointing a special counsel to investigate J6 criminals' prosecutions, a most heartwarming endeavor to all voters who like their presidents to be chosen by fascistic violence.

And of course Bobby has always had that certain something, that special little glint in his eye that says I'm fucking nuttier than Jim Carrey when it comes to vaccines — that certain something that appeals immensely to Trump's voting morons (the ones still alive, post-pandemic). 

The sudden raft of RFK-MeTooism has the psychotic moron in a tizzy; only yesterday, Trump loved Bobby all to pieces, now he despises the man. The right's perpetual media motion machine of disinformation once exalted RFK as well, then it went kinda silent about him, and now it, too, despises Robert F. Kennedy Jr.   

I think he's a wonderful guy.

Comments

[Anne J]

I always thought that Jr. would cut into Trump's numbers more than Biden's. It's the same base of anti vax conspiracy nutters and maybe to them, Trump is yesterday's news.

But is Jr. running to win or running a stealth pro Biden campaign?

[PM]

Just a guess, Anne, but I think RFK got tricked like Trump did. Both thought he would hurt Biden (as I did) because he was running as a Dem, but then he flipped to independent and became more of a threat to Trump. That and the fact that he's crazy made him a natural for Trump voters.

[PM]

I should add that I recently discovered entering an email address to comment isn't required. It was for years, then it just ... stopped. Makes it easier.