An even better polling result for Harris

I nearly dismissed the top poll as swiftly as I dismissed the bottom one, from Rasmussen Reports — Republicans' polling version of Linus' security blanket. As for the top finding, I was initially dismissive because of my unfamiliarity with the survey firm of Civiqs, it was commissioned by a partisan website friendly to Democrats, and Kamala Harris' lead was 2 or 3 points higher than that of other polls conducted in and around the last week in July.    

But Civiqs has a respectable 538 rating of 2.5/3.0 and an 8.6 transparency score (meaning just what it sounds like: how transparent a polling firm is in disclosing its methodology; the highest score is 10.0, and Rasmussen's, for example, is only 3.1.)

Furthermore, the polling that Civiqs conducted among registered voters was certainly not biased toward the Democratic nominee despite its partisan employer, so to speak. Harris' favorability stood at 43%, her unfavorability at 51%. A skewed poll would show better numbers for the Democrat. On the R side, 42% were favorable toward Trump — which resembles his usual base number — and 56% unfavorable. A mere 34% were favorable toward JD Vance, who just might be the most disliked man in America.  

Democrats at large are focusing on the abortion issue, as you know, and here, Ms. Harris, for one, has more work to do. Civiqs found that only 25% of voters believed Trump was responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned, while 41% named the Supreme Court. Voters blaming the court is fine for down-ballot Democrats, but Harris needs to pin the responsibility on Trump alone. 

One other finding of interest was the response to this question included in the survey: "Do you think that Kamala Harris has a better chance than Joe Biden did to defeat Donald Trump?" Now again, the polling was of all registered voters: 50% answered that Harris has a better chance of beating Trump, while 31% said they both had the same chance.  

There's a nuance in the responses. The lesser percentage could mean the same chance of winning or losing, yet significantly more respondents said Harris had a better chance than Biden, which can only mean she has better odds of winning in the minds of half the respondents. And that's quite a vote of confidence in Kamala Harris.

Comments

[Anne J]

I have heard Kamala Harris say it many times that Trump brags about appointing the justices that overturned Roe v. Wade. She has been getting that message out there, but she is not in control of how people will take that message.